ນັກວິ​ເຄາະ​ຜູ້​ນີ້​ກ່າວ​ວ່າ ທະນາຄານ​ມີ​ທຶນ​ສັ້ນ​ກວ່າ 1 ພັນ​ຕື້​ໂດ​ລາ, ຜູ້​ທີ່​ຢ້ານ​ວ່າ​ການ​ຂາດ​ແຄນ​ຈະ​ຮ້າຍ​ແຮງ​ຂຶ້ນ.

That claim may surprise those who think the U.S. banking industry has some $2.2 trillion in capital. But he whittles that figure in several ways. First, he notes, there’s a difference between book equity and tangible equity, the latter of which is used by banking regulators to evaluate solvency. It’s a narrower definition, excluding items like goodwill and deferred tax assets, that brings the total down to $1.49 trillion from $2.22 trillion.

Then, drawing on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data, he subtracts what’s called accumulated other comprehensive income. “Thanks to QE and now QT, all sorts of assets have become negative return propositions for banks and nonbanks alike. If the coupon pays less than the funding costs, you’re losing money,” he says. That takes capital down to $1.23 trillion.

Now comes the more controversial part. First he marks to market losses on loans and securities created during 2020 and 2021, for the impact of this year’s Fed rate hikes. That right there is enough to push banks into insolvency, with some $1.74 trillion of losses from marking to market.

Another $794 billion losses comes if bank holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities and state and municipal securities also are marked to market. Put it all together, on Whalen’s calculations, and banks have a $1.3 trillion shortfall as of the second quarter.

Granted, and this is very important, banks don’t have to mark their assets to market. So what’s the worry? That exception isn’t infinite — banks are allowed to ignore mark-to-market losses so long as they have the capacity and intent to do so. “Even if the bank holds these low-coupon assets created during 2020-2021 in portfolio to maturity, cash flow losses and poor returns could eventually force a sale,” Whalen says.

He performed a similar analysis on JPMorgan Chase
ບໍລິສັດ JPM,
+ 1.64%,
which he calls one of the better managed banks. Jamie Dimon’s bunch has a $16 billion shortfall as of the second quarter — and a $58 billion deficit if the mark-to-market adjustment is a steeper 17.5% — on Whalen’s numbers.

The bigger question is when those asset sales could possibly occur. “Sales of assets will occur slowly but lenders may force issue on collateral that is 20pts underwater,” he told MarketWatch in an email. And what’s unsustainable now is set to get worse. “Higher rates just make eventual mess bigger,” Whalen added.

ຕະຫຼາດ

ຮຸ້ນອະນາຄົດຂອງສະຫະລັດ
ES00,
+ 0.01%

NQ00,
+ 0.06%
were pointing higher in early action. Commodities were moving up, with gains for both oil
CL.1,
+ 3.70%
ແລະ ຄຳ
GC00,
+ 1.19%.
ເງິນໂດລາ
DXY,
0.24​-%
ຕ່ໍາກວ່າ.

ສໍາລັບການປັບປຸງຕະຫຼາດເພີ່ມເຕີມບວກກັບແນວຄວາມຄິດການຄ້າທີ່ປະຕິບັດໄດ້ສໍາລັບຫຼັກຊັບ, ທາງເລືອກແລະ crypto, ຈອງ MarketDiem ໂດຍທຸລະກິດຂອງນັກລົງທຶນປະຈໍາວັນ.

ບ້ານໄດ້

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 p.m. at the Brookings Institution, the current employer of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. “We see hawkish risk from Powell’s comments today which may reinforce his November FOMC message that policy rates may need rise to higher levels and that a slowdown to a 50bp hike is not a dovish pivot,” said economist at Citi. There are two other Fed speakers as well, with Gov. Michelle Bowman due to speak about banks, as Gov. Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club.

Private-sector job creation slowed to 129,000 in November, ADP estimated, in what it said was the weakest job growth since Jan. 2021. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department upped its estimate of third-quarter growth to 2.9% from 2.6%. The advanced trade in goods report showed a 7.7% rise in the goods deficit, a 0.8% increase in wholesale inventories but a 0.2% drop in retail inventories.

Still to come are Chicago PMI, job openings and pending home sales all are due for release, with the Beige Book of economic anecdotes due at 2 p.m.

In the eurozone, year-over-year inflation slowed to 10% in November from 10.6%.

ການຄອບຄອງຂອງ CrowdStrike
CRWD,
1.04​-%
ຫຼຸດລົງຫຼັງຈາກ cybersecurity firm guided for slowing subscription revenue growth.

Horizon ບຳ ບັດ
HZNP,
+ 0.97%
rallied after the Irish drugmaker said it’s in talks to be purchased, with heavy hitters including Amgen
AMGN,
0.22​-%,
Johnson ແລະ Johnson
JNJ,
0.70​-%
and Sanofi
ຊານ,
2.53​-%
circling the company.

An Alzheimer’s drug from Biogen
BIIB,
0.17​-%
and Eisai
4523,
+ 3.83%
ປານກາງ reduced cognitive decline but also comes with side effect.

Walt Disney
DIS,
1.05​-%
said its returning CEO, Bob Iger, will initiate organization and operational changes that could result in impairment charges. It flagged the Disney Media and Entertainment Division, which includes its streaming services, for changes.

ດີທີ່ສຸດຂອງເວັບ

ແມ່ນ​ຫຍັງ China’s young protesters want.

ການອະທິບາຍ America’s shortfall of EV charging stations.

The full annotation of the racist Los Angeles city council audio that has thrown America’s second-largest city into turmoil.

ຍອດນິຍົມ

Here are the most active stock-market tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

ຕາຕະລາງ

Hardship withdrawals have reached an all-time high, according to data from Vanguard. Such withdrawals are only permitted for an immediate and heavy financial need and subject to income taxes and a 10% early withdrawal penalty.

Random ອ່ານ

This 22-year-old sells human bones for a living.

There’s another World Cup going on in Qatar — for camels.

Lobsta Mickey — a giant Mickey Mouse statue with lobster claws — is back in Boston.

ຕ້ອງການຮູ້ເລີ່ມຕົ້ນແລະຖືກປັບປຸງຈົນກ່ວາລະຄັງເປີດ, ແຕ່ວ່າ ລົງທະບຽນຢູ່ທີ່ນີ້ ເພື່ອໃຫ້ມັນສົ່ງໄປທີ່ອີເມວຂອງທ່ານຄັ້ງດຽວ. ສະບັບອີເມວຈະຖືກສົ່ງອອກໃນເວລາປະມານ 7: 30 ເຊົ້າພາກຕາເວັນອອກ.

ເຊີນຟັງ ແນວຄວາມຄິດໃໝ່ທີ່ດີທີ່ສຸດໃນ Money podcast ກັບນັກຂ່າວ MarketWatch Charles Passy ແລະນັກເສດຖະສາດ Stephanie Kelton