ຂໍ້ມູນອະນຸພັນຂອງ Bitcoin ສະແດງໃຫ້ເຫັນພື້ນທີ່ສໍາລັບລາຄາ BTC ທີ່ຈະຍ້າຍອອກໄປໃນອາທິດນີ້

ໃນອາທິດນີ້ Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a 2023 high at $23,100 and the move followed a notable recovery in traditional markets, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which gained 2.9% on Jan. 20.

Economic data continues to boost investors’ hope that the United States Federal Reserve will reduce the pace and length of interest rate hikes. For instance, sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in December, the 11th consecutive decline after high mortgage rates in the United States severely impacted demand.

On Jan. 20, Google announced that 12,000 workers were laid off, more than 6% of its global workforce. The bad news continues to trigger buying activity on risk assets, but Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan, expects weaker earnings guidance to “put downward pressure” on the stock market.

The fear of recession increased on Jan. 20 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that a soft recession should be tolerated if it meant bringing inflation down.

Some analysts have pegged Bitcoin’s gains to ກຸ່ມສະກຸນເງິນດິຈິຕອລ filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection — allowing the troubled Genesis Capital to seek the reorganization of debts and its business activities. But, more importantly, the move decreases the risk of a fire sale on Grayscale Investments assets, including the $13.3 billion trust fund Grayscale GBTC.

ໃຫ້ເບິ່ງຢູ່ໃນ metrics derivatives ເພື່ອເຂົ້າໃຈດີກວ່າວິທີການທີ່ພໍ່ຄ້າມືອາຊີບຖືກຈັດໃສ່ໃນສະພາບຕະຫຼາດໃນປະຈຸບັນ.

Bitcoin margin longs dropped after the pump to $21,000

ຕະຫຼາດ Margin ໃຫ້ຄວາມເຂົ້າໃຈກ່ຽວກັບວິທີການຈັດຕໍາແຫນ່ງຂອງພໍ່ຄ້າມືອາຊີບເພາະວ່າມັນອະນຸຍາດໃຫ້ນັກລົງທຶນກູ້ຢືມເງິນ cryptocurrency ເພື່ອນໍາໃຊ້ຕໍາແຫນ່ງຂອງເຂົາເຈົ້າ.

ຕົວຢ່າງ, ຫນຶ່ງສາມາດເພີ່ມການເປີດເຜີຍໂດຍການກູ້ຢືມເງິນທີ່ຫມັ້ນຄົງເພື່ອຊື້ Bitcoin. ໃນທາງກົງກັນຂ້າມ, ຜູ້ກູ້ຢືມ Bitcoin ພຽງແຕ່ສາມາດສັ້ນ cryptocurrency ຍ້ອນວ່າພວກເຂົາວາງເດີມພັນກັບລາຄາຂອງມັນຫຼຸດລົງ. ບໍ່​ມັກ ສັນຍາໃນອະນາຄົດ, ຄວາມສົມດູນລະຫວ່າງຂອບຍາວແລະສັ້ນແມ່ນບໍ່ກົງກັນສະ ເໝີ ໄປ.

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased from Jan. 12 to Jan. 16, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs as Bitcoin gained 18%.

However, the indicator reversed its trend as the excessive leverage, 35 times larger for buying activity on Jan. 16, retreated to a neutral-to-bullish level on Jan. 20.

ໃນປັດຈຸບັນຢູ່ທີ່ 15, metric ສະຫນັບສະຫນູນການກູ້ຢືມເງິນຄົງທີ່ໂດຍຂອບກ້ວາງແລະຊີ້ໃຫ້ເຫັນວ່າສັ້ນບໍ່ຫມັ້ນໃຈໃນການສ້າງຕໍາແຫນ່ງ leveraged bearish.

Still, such data does not explain whether pro traders became less bullish or decided to reduce their leverage by depositing additional margin. Hence, one should analyze options markets to understand if the sentiment has changed.

Options traders are neutral despite the recent rally

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

ຕົວຊີ້ວັດປຽບທຽບການໂທທີ່ຄ້າຍຄືກັນ (ຊື້) ແລະວາງ (ຂາຍ) ທາງເລືອກແລະຈະປ່ຽນເປັນບວກໃນເວລາທີ່ຄວາມຢ້ານກົວແມ່ນແຜ່ຫຼາຍຍ້ອນວ່າທາງເລືອກທີ່ນິຍົມຂອງການປົກປ້ອງແມ່ນສູງກວ່າທາງເລືອກການໂທຄວາມສ່ຽງ.

ໃນສັ້ນ, ຕົວຊີ້ວັດ skew ຈະຍ້າຍອອກໄປຂ້າງເທິງ 10% ຖ້າພໍ່ຄ້າຢ້ານວ່າລາຄາ Bitcoin crash. ໃນອີກດ້ານຫນຶ່ງ, ຄວາມຕື່ນເຕັ້ນໂດຍທົ່ວໄປສະທ້ອນໃຫ້ເຫັນເຖິງ 10% skew ລົບ.

As displayed above, the 25% delta skew reached its lowest level in more than 12 months on Jan. 15. Option traders were finally paying a premium for bullish strategies instead of the opposite.

ທີ່ກ່ຽວຂ້ອງ: ກໍລະນີລົ້ມລະລາຍຂອງ Genesis ກໍານົດສໍາລັບການໄຕ່ສວນຄັ້ງທໍາອິດ

Currently, at minus 2%, the delta skew signals that investors are pricing similar odds for bull and bear cases, which is somewhat less optimistic than expected considering the recent rally toward $22,000.

Derivatives data puts the bullish case in check as buyers using stablecoin margin significantly reduced their leverage and option markets are pricing similar risks for either side. On the other hand, bears have not found a level where they would be comfortable opening short positions by borrowing Bitcoin on margin markets.

Traditional markets continue to play a crucial role in setting the trend, but Bitcoin bulls have no reason to fear as long as derivatives metrics remain healthy.