ແຜນການຂອງບໍລິສັດຜູ້ບໍລິຫານທີ່ມີຄຸນນະພາບຫຼຸດລົງຄວາມສ່ຽງຂອງການລົງທຶນໃນ PACCAR Inc.

Three new stocks made November’s Exec Comp Aligned with ROIC Model Portfolio, available to members as of November 16, 2022.

Recap From October’s Picks

The Exec Comp Aligned with ROIC Model Portfolio (+10.0%) underperformed the S&P 500 (+10.5%) from October 14, 2022 through November 14, 2022. The best-performing stock in the portfolio was up 23%. Overall, eight out of the 15 Exec Comp Aligned with ROIC stocks outperformed the S&P 500 from October 14, 2022 through November 14, 2022.

ຫຼັກຊັບແບບຈໍາລອງນີ້ປະກອບມີພຽງແຕ່ຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຈັດອັນດັບທີ່ຫນ້າສົນໃຈຫຼືຫນ້າສົນໃຈຫຼາຍແລະຈັດລຽງການຊົດເຊີຍຜູ້ບໍລິຫານກັບການປັບປຸງ ROIC. ຂ້າພະເຈົ້າຄິດວ່າການລວມກັນນີ້ສະຫນອງບັນຊີລາຍຊື່ທີ່ດີທີ່ເປັນເອກະລັກຂອງແນວຄວາມຄິດທີ່ຍາວນານເພາະວ່າຜົນຕອບແທນຂອງທຶນລົງທຶນ (ROIC) ແມ່ນຕົວຂັບເຄື່ອນຕົ້ນຕໍຂອງການສ້າງມູນຄ່າຂອງຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນ.

New Feature Stock for November: PACCAR Inc.

PACCAR Inc. (PCAR ) is the featured stock in November’s Exec Comp Aligned with ROIC Model Portfolio. I made PCAR a Long Idea in July 2020 as one of my ”See Through the Dip” stocks. Since then, the stock is up 30% compared to a 22% gain for the S&P 500.

Though PACCAR’s profits fell during the pandemic, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) soared to all-time highs over the trailing-twelve-months (TTM). PACCAR has grown revenue and NOPAT by 5% and 9% compounded annually, respectively, since 2011. The company’s NOPAT margin rose from 6% in 2011 to 9% over the TTM, while return on invested capital (ROIC) rose from 17% to 21% over the same time.

Figure 1: PACCAR’s Revenue & NOPAT: 2011 – TTM

ການຊົດເຊີຍຜູ້ບໍລິຫານຈັດວາງສິ່ງຈູງໃຈໃຫ້ຖືກຕ້ອງ

PACCAR’s executive compensation plan aligns the interests of executives and shareholders by tying the payout of equity- and cash-based awards to a three-year target return on capital, which is similar to my calculation of return on invested capital (ROIC).

The company’s inclusion of return on capital as a performance goal has helped create shareholder value through rising ROIC and economic earnings. PACCAR’s ROIC improved from 14% in 2016 to 21% over the TTM and the company’s economic earnings rose from $735 million to $1.8 billion over the same period.

Figure 2: PACCAR’s ROIC: 2016 – TTM

PCAR Is Undervalued

At its current price of $104/share, PCAR has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.9. This ratio means the market expects PACCAR’s NOPAT to permanently fall by 10%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic for a company that has grown NOPAT by 9% compounded annually since 2011.

If PACCAR’s NOPAT margin falls to 8% (compared to TTM margin of 9%), and the company grows revenue by just 5% compounded annually over the next 10 years, the stock would be worth $130/share today – a 25% upside. In this scenario, PACCAR’s NOPAT would grow just 6% compounded annually over the next decade (compared to 9% since 2011). ເບິ່ງຄະນິດສາດທີ່ຢູ່ເບື້ອງຫລັງສະຖານະການ DCF ດ້ານຫຼັງ. ຖ້າບໍລິສັດເຕີບໂຕ NOPAT ຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນຕາມອັດຕາການເຕີບໂຕຂອງປະຫວັດສາດ, ຫຼັກຊັບກໍ່ມີທ່າອ່ຽງເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ.

ລາຍລະອຽດທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນພົບຢູ່ໃນຮູບເງົາການເງິນໂດຍເທັກໂນໂລຢີ Robo-Analyst ຂອງ My Firm

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in PACCAR’s 10-Qs and 10-Ks:

ໃບແຈ້ງຍອດລາຍຮັບ: ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ເຮັດການປັບຕົວໄດ້ 122 ລ້ານໂດລາ ໂດຍມີຜົນສຸດທິໃນການຖອນລາຍຮັບທີ່ບໍ່ດຳເນີນງານ 56 ລ້ານໂດລາ (<1% ຂອງລາຍຮັບ).

ໃບດຸ່ນດ່ຽງ: ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ເຮັດການປັບຕົວ 5.6 ຕື້ໂດລາເພື່ອຄິດໄລ່ທຶນທີ່ລົງທຶນດ້ວຍການຫຼຸດລົງສຸດທິ 3.1 ຕື້ໂດລາ. ຫນຶ່ງໃນການປັບຕົວທີ່ໃຫຍ່ທີ່ສຸດແມ່ນ 921 ລ້ານໂດລາ (7% ຂອງຊັບສິນສຸດທິທີ່ລາຍງານ) ໃນລາຍໄດ້ລວມອື່ນໆ.

Valuation: I made $4.3 billion in adjustments with a net effect of increasing shareholder value by $3.2 billion. The most notable adjustment to shareholder value was $3.4 billion in excess cash. This adjustment represents 9% of PACCAR’s market cap.

ການເປີດເຜີຍ: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Matt Shuler, ແລະ Italo Mendonça ບໍ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຊົດເຊີຍທີ່ຈະຂຽນກ່ຽວກັບຫຼັກຊັບ, ແບບ, ຫຼືຫົວຂໍ້ສະເພາະໃດໆ.