ຂໍ້ມູນອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ທີ່ 'ເປັນຕາຕົກໃຈ' ຊີ້ໃຫ້ເຫັນວ່າລາຄາສາມາດສືບຕໍ່ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຫຼາຍເດືອນ, Goldman Sachs ເຕືອນ

In a Tuesday evening note to clients, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said recent inflation “looks more concerning” now because of the extent to which prices have risen and the growing breadth of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to better gauge a consumer’s long-term purchasing power.

Two-thirds of items encompassing the core consumer price index, which tracks the prices of everything from apparel and cars to rent and medical care, have seen 4% annualized inflation since last July, compared to only 19% of the basket in 2019, while 16% of items have seen prices rise at least 10%—much more than the 1% of items seeing that level of inflation during similar periods historically. 

In an “arguably more alarming” development, the large price increases have been increasingly broad-based, expanding beyond those “driven overwhelmingly by extreme moves in a few supply-constrained categories,” as was the case for much of the past year for products like cars and meat, the economist said. 

With about 50% of categories reporting inflation above 4% in the latest CPI report, Goldman says the breadth indicates core inflation, which is already at the highest level in nearly 40 years, could rise another 0.5 percentage points over the next six months—before taking into account additional upward pressure from wage increases or lingering supply chain constraints.

Beyond that, the “implications are less clear-cut,” Hatzius said, pointing out rising inflation in the late 1970s coincided with long-lasting runaway inflation, while shorter-lived bouts in 2000 and 2006 did not.

One near certainty is that the Federal Reserve is expected to combat rising prices by hiking interest rates as soon as next month, a policy move that successfully curbed inflation in 2000 and 2006, but Hatzius notes there were also repercussions:Inflation was curbed in each period, but the higher rates also resulted in a tech stock crash and a housing price crunch.