ການວິເຄາະທ່າແຮງການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວເງິນປັນຜົນຂອງ Lockheed Martin

Recap from August’s Picks

On a price return basis, the Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio (-5.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 (-5.6%) by 0.2% from August 30, 2023 through September 26, 2023. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (-5.1%) outperformed the S&P 500 (-5.2%) by 0.1% over the same time. The best performing stock was up 8%. Overall, 15 out of 28 Dividend Growth stocks outperformed their respective benchmarks (S&P 500 and Russell 2000) from August 30, 2023 through September 26, 2023.

ວິທີການສໍາລັບຫຼັກຊັບຂອງຮູບແບບນີ້ mimics ແບບ "All Cap Blend" ໂດຍເນັ້ນໃສ່ການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວຂອງເງິນປັນຜົນ. ຮຸ້ນທີ່ເລືອກໄດ້ຮັບຄະແນນທີ່ໜ້າສົນໃຈ ຫຼື ໜ້າສົນໃຈຫຼາຍ, ສ້າງກະແສເງິນສົດເປັນບວກ (FCF) ແລະ ລາຍຮັບທາງເສດຖະກິດ, ໃຫ້ອັດຕາຜົນຕອບແທນເງິນປັນຜົນໃນປະຈຸບັນ > 1%, ແລະມີສະຖິຕິການເຕີບໂຕຂອງເງິນປັນຜົນຕິດຕໍ່ກັນ 5 ປີ. ຫຼັກຊັບຮູບແບບນີ້ຖືກອອກແບບມາສໍາລັບນັກລົງທຶນທີ່ສຸມໃສ່ການແຂງຄ່າຂອງທຶນໃນໄລຍະຍາວຫຼາຍກ່ວາລາຍຮັບໃນປະຈຸບັນ, ແຕ່ຍັງຊື່ນຊົມອໍານາດຂອງເງິນປັນຜົນ, ໂດຍສະເພາະແມ່ນການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວຂອງເງິນປັນຜົນ.

Featured Stock for September: Lockheed Martin

LMT

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) is the featured stock in September’s Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio.

Lockheed Martin has grown revenue by 6% compounded annually and net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) by 9% compounded annually since 2016. The company’s NOPAT margin increased from 9% in 2016 to 11% over the TTM, while invested capital turns rose from 1.0 to 1.4 over the same time. Higher invested capital turns and NOPAT margins drive return on invested capital (ROIC) from 9% in 2016 to 16% in TTM.

Figure 1: Lockheed Martin’s Revenue & NOPAT Since 2016

ກະແສເງິນສົດຟຣີຮອງຮັບການຊໍາລະເງິນປັນຜົນປົກກະຕິ

Lockheed Martin has increased its regular dividend from $1.82/share in 4Q16 to $3.00/share in 2Q23. The current quarterly dividend, when annualized, equals $12.00/share and provides a 3.0% dividend yield.

More importantly, Lockheed Martin’s free cash flow (FCF) easily exceeds its regular dividend payments. From 2017 through 2Q23, Lockheed Martin generated $42.0 billion (33% of current enterprise value) in FCF while paying $17.3 billion in dividends. See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Lockheed Martin’s FCF ທຽບກັບເງິນປັນຜົນປົກກະຕິນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ 2017

ບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີ FCF ດີກວ່າການຈ່າຍເງິນປັນຜົນໃຫ້ໂອກາດການເຕີບໂຕຂອງເງິນປັນຜົນທີ່ມີຄຸນນະພາບສູງກວ່າ. ໃນທາງກົງກັນຂ້າມ, ເງິນປັນຜົນທີ່ເກີນ FCF ບໍ່ສາມາດເຊື່ອຖືໄດ້ທີ່ຈະເຕີບໂຕຫຼືແມ້ກະທັ້ງຖືກຮັກສາໄວ້.

LMT Is Undervalued

At its current price of $404/share, Lockheed Martin has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 1.0. This ratio means the market expects Lockheed Martin’s NOPAT to stay not increase ever again. This expectation seems overly pessimistic given that Lockheed Martin has grown NOPAT by 9% compounded annually since 2016 and 13% compounded annually since 2000.

Even if Lockheed Martin’s NOPAT margin remains at 11% (five-year average), and revenue grows only by 4% compounded annually through 2032, the stock would be worth $523/share today – a 29% upside. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Lockheed Martin’s NOPAT would increase only 4% compounded annually through 2032. Should the company’s NOPAT grow more in line with historical growth rates, the stock has even more upside.

Add in Lockheed Martin’s 3.0% dividend yield and a history of dividend growth, and it’s clear why this stock is in September’s Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio.

ລາຍລະອຽດທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນພົບຢູ່ໃນຮູບເງົາການເງິນໂດຍເທັກໂນໂລຢີ Robo-Analyst ຂອງ My Firm

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Lockheed Martin’s 10-K and 10-Qs:

ໃບແຈ້ງຍອດລາຍຮັບ: ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ເຮັດການປັບຕົວ 2.8 ຕື້ໂດລາ ທີ່ມີຜົນສຸດທິໃນການຖອນຄ່າໃຊ້ຈ່າຍທີ່ບໍ່ແມ່ນການດໍາເນີນງານ 1.8 ຕື້ໂດລາ (3% ຂອງລາຍຮັບ).

ໃບດຸ່ນດ່ຽງ: ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ເຮັດການປັບຕົວ 22.5 ຕື້ໂດລາເພື່ອຄິດໄລ່ທຶນທີ່ລົງທຶນດ້ວຍການເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນສຸດທິ 11.8 ຕື້ໂດລາ. ການປັບຕົວທີ່ໂດດເດັ່ນທີ່ສຸດແມ່ນ 8 ຕື້ໂດລາ (22% ຂອງຊັບສິນສຸດທິທີ່ລາຍງານ) ໃນລາຍໄດ້ລວມອື່ນໆ.

Valuation: I made $24.3 billion in adjustments, with a net decrease in shareholder value of $23.7 billion. The most notable adjustment to shareholder value was $17.9 billion in total debt. This adjustment represents 18% of Lockheed Martin’s market value.

ການເປີດເຜີຍ: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Italo Mendonça, ແລະ Hakan Salt ບໍ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຊົດເຊີຍທີ່ຈະຂຽນກ່ຽວກັບຫຼັກຊັບ, ຮູບແບບ, ຫຼືຫົວຂໍ້ສະເພາະໃດໆ.