ກະແສເງິນສົດຂອງ Best Buy ເພີ່ມຄວາມປອດໄພຂອງຜົນກໍາໄລຂອງເງິນປັນຜົນ

ສະຫຼຸບຈາກການເລືອກເອົາເດືອນເມສາ

On a price return basis, the Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio (-2.0%) outperformed the S&P 500 (-6.8%) by 4.8% from April 21, 2022 through May 17, 2022. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (-1.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 (-6.8%) by 5.0% over the same time. The best performing large cap stock was up 14% and the best performing small cap stock was up 7%. Overall, 18 out of the 20 Safest Dividend Yield stocks outperformed their respective benchmarks (S&P 500 and Russell 2000) from April 21, 2022 through May 17, 2022.

ຫຼັກຊັບແບບຈໍາລອງນີ້ປະກອບມີພຽງແຕ່ຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຈັດອັນດັບທີ່ດຶງດູດຫຼືດຶງດູດຫຼາຍ, ມີກະແສເງິນສົດໃນທາງບວກແລະລາຍໄດ້ທາງເສດຖະກິດ, ແລະໃຫ້ຜົນຜະລິດເງິນປັນຜົນຫຼາຍກວ່າ 3%. ບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີກະແສເງິນສົດຢ່າງແຂງແຮງໃຫ້ຜົນຜະລິດເງິນປັນຜົນທີ່ມີຄຸນນະພາບສູງກວ່າແລະປອດໄພກວ່າເພາະວ່າຂ້ອຍຮູ້ວ່າພວກເຂົາມີເງິນສົດເພື່ອສະຫນັບສະຫນູນເງິນປັນຜົນ. ຂ້າພະເຈົ້າຄິດວ່າຫຼັກຊັບນີ້ສະຫນອງກຸ່ມຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ມີການຄັດເລືອກທີ່ເປັນເອກະລັກທີ່ສາມາດຊ່ວຍລູກຄ້າໄດ້ດີກວ່າ.

Featured Stock for May: Best Buy
BBY

Best Buy (BBY) is the featured stock in May’s Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio. I originally made Best Buy a Long Idea in November 2018 and recently reiterated the pick in October 2021. Since my original report, the stock is up 7% vs. a 40% rise for the S&P 500.

Best Buy has grown revenue by 6% compounded annually and net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 12% compounded annually since fiscal 2017 (FYE is 1/29/22). Best Buy’s NOPAT margin rose from 4% in fiscal 2017 to 5% in fiscal 2022, while invested capital turns improved from 4.1 to 5.6 over the same time. Rising NOPAT margins and invested capital turns drive the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) from 14% in fiscal 2017 to 27% in fiscal 2022.

Figure 1: Best Buy’s Revenue and NOPAT Since Fiscal 2017

ກະແສເງິນສົດຟຣີຮອງຮັບການຊໍາລະເງິນປັນຜົນປົກກະຕິ

Best Buy has paid dividends in each year since fiscal 2003 and increased its regular dividend from $1.36/share in fiscal 2018 to $2.80/share in fiscal 2022. The current quarterly dividend, when annualized, provides a 4.4% dividend yield.

Best Buy’s cumulative FCF easily exceeds its regular dividend payments. From fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2022, Best Buy generated $9.6 billion (58% of current market cap) in FCF while paying $2.7 billion in dividends, per Figure 2.

Should the economic slowdown in 2022 worsen, and the company’s FCF turn negative as it did in fiscal 2009, the company’s $2.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents provide an extra layer of protection for the dividend. For reference, the company paid $688 million in dividends in fiscal 2021.

Figure 2: Best Buy’s FCF ທຽບກັບເງິນປັນຜົນປົກກະຕິນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ງົບປະມານ 2018

ບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີ FCF ທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງໃຫ້ຜົນຜະລິດເງິນປັນຜົນທີ່ມີຄຸນນະພາບສູງກວ່າເພາະວ່າບໍລິສັດມີເງິນສົດເພື່ອສະຫນັບສະຫນູນເງິນປັນຜົນ. ເງິນປັນຜົນຈາກບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີ FCF ຕໍ່າຫຼືລົບບໍ່ສາມາດເຊື່ອຖືໄດ້ຫຼາຍເພາະວ່າບໍລິສັດອາດຈະບໍ່ສາມາດຮັກສາການຈ່າຍເງິນປັນຜົນໄດ້.

Best Buy Is Undervalued

At its current price of $80/share, Best Buy has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.5. This ratio means the market expects Best Buy’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 50%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic given that Best Buy grew NOPAT by 7% compounded annually over the past two decades and 12% compounded annually over the past five years.

Even if Best Buy’s NOPAT margin falls to 4% (five-year average vs. 5% over the TTM) and the company’s NOPAT falls by 1% compounded annually over the next decade, the stock is worth $153/share today – a 91% upside. ເບິ່ງຄະນິດສາດທີ່ຢູ່ເບື້ອງຫລັງສະຖານະການ DCF ດ້ານຫຼັງ. ຖ້າບໍລິສັດເຕີບໂຕ NOPAT ຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນຕາມອັດຕາການເຕີບໂຕຂອງປະຫວັດສາດ, ຫຼັກຊັບກໍ່ມີທ່າອ່ຽງເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ.

ລາຍລະອຽດທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນພົບຢູ່ໃນຮູບເງົາການເງິນໂດຍເທັກໂນໂລຢີ Robo-Analyst ຂອງ My Firm

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Best Buy’s 10-K:

ໃບແຈ້ງຍອດລາຍຮັບ: ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ເຮັດການປັບຕົວໄດ້ 315 ລ້ານໂດລາ ໂດຍມີຜົນສຸດທິໃນການຖອນຄ່າໃຊ້ຈ່າຍທີ່ບໍ່ແມ່ນການດໍາເນີນງານ 9 ລ້ານໂດລາ (<1% ຂອງລາຍຮັບ).

ໃບດຸ່ນດ່ຽງ: ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ເຮັດການປັບຕົວ 3.9 ຕື້ໂດລາເພື່ອຄິດໄລ່ທຶນທີ່ລົງທຶນດ້ວຍການເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນສຸດທິ 1.0 ຕື້ໂດລາ. ການປັບຕົວທີ່ໂດດເດັ່ນທີ່ສຸດແມ່ນ 2.4 ຕື້ໂດລາ (36% ຂອງຊັບສິນສຸດທິທີ່ລາຍງານ) ໃນການບັນທຶກຊັບສິນ.

Valuation: I made $4.2 billion in adjustments with a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $3.4 billion. Apart from total debt, one of the most notable adjustments to shareholder value was $348 million in excess cash. This adjustment represents 2% of Best Buy’s market value.

ການເປີດເຜີຍ: David ຄູຝຶກ, Kyle Guske II, ແລະ Matt Shuler ບໍ່ໄດ້ຮັບຄ່າຕອບແທນໃດໆທີ່ຈະຂຽນກ່ຽວກັບຫຼັກຊັບ, ຮູບແບບ, ຫຼືຫົວຂໍ້ໃດ ໜຶ່ງ ທີ່ແນ່ນອນ.