ການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າທີ່ໃຫຍ່ທີ່ສຸດຕັດການເຊື່ອມຕໍ່ຢູ່ໃນ S&P 500

Though Core Earnings for the S&P 500 reached record heights in 1Q22, I find that this earnings power is very unevenly distributed. 40 companies, or just 8% of companies in the S&P 500, account for 50% of the Core Earnings for the entire S&P 500. Deeper analysis reveals that these 40 companies trade at lower valuations compared to the rest of the index.

Perhaps, the most telling sign that investors are not digging below the surface when allocating capital is this mismatch between earnings power and market capitalization.

Clearly, the rising tide does ບໍ່ always lift all boats so investors must find individual stocks that will outperform in ໃດ environment. Below, I reveal the three sectors with the most concentrated Core Earnings power and the stocks in those sectors where investors are assigning valuation premiums and discounts in the wrong places. I exclude the Telecom Services sector as there are only five companies in the sector.

ນັກລົງທຶນປະເມີນມູນຄ່າລາຍໄດ້ທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງ

Per Figure 1, the top 40 companies, based on Core Earnings, in the S&P 500 trade at a price-to-Core Earnings (P/CE) ratio of 17.4. The rest of the index trades at a P/CE ratio of 21.0. I calculate this metric based on S&P Global’s (SPGI) methodology, which sums the individual S&P 500 constituent values for market cap and Core Earnings before using them to calculate the metric. Price as of 6/13/22 and financial data through calendar 1Q22.

Of course, stock prices are based on ໃນອະນາຄົດ earnings so one could argue that these valuations simply reflect diminished expectations for the 40 companies with the highest Core Earnings. However, on closer inspection it becomes clear that the market is badly mispricing earnings potential among some of the largest companies.

Among the top 40 Core Earners, only one gets worse than a neutral Stock Rating and twenty receive an attractive-or-better rating, which indicates strong overall earnings potential. Indeed, my Long Ideas have specifically identified several of the top 40 Core Earnings companies as outperformance opportunities. These include the likes of MicrosoftMSFT
, Alphabet (GOOGL), Cisco (CSCO), Johnson & JohnsonJNJ
, WalmartWMT
, OracleORCL
, JPMorgan ChaseJPM
, IntelINTC
, and others discussed below.

ຮູບທີ 1: ຄວາມແຕກຕ່າງຂອງລາຍຮັບ ແລະ ການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າ S&P 500

Below I zoom into the earnings at the sector and company level to highlight examples where valuations are not properly aligned with earnings power.

ການແຜ່ກະຈາຍທີ່ບໍ່ສະເຫມີພາບໃນພະລັງງານຂອງຂະແຫນງການພະລັງງານ

ເມື່ອຂ້ອຍເບິ່ງດ້ານລຸ່ມ, ຂ້ອຍເຫັນວ່າລາຍໄດ້ຫຼັກຂອງຂະແຫນງພະລັງງານ, ຢູ່ທີ່ 109.8 ຕື້ໂດລາໃນ 1Q22 ໄດ້ຖືກຂັບເຄື່ອນໂດຍພຽງແຕ່ສອງສາມບໍລິສັດເທົ່ານັ້ນ.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), ບໍລິສັດ ChevronCVX
, ConocoPhillipsCOP
, Occidental Petroleum Corpoxy
, and Pioneer Natural Resources CompanyPXD
ກວມເອົາ 67% ຂອງລາຍຮັບຫຼັກຂອງຂະແຫນງການ ແລະກວມເອົາສ່ວນຮ້ອຍທີ່ໃຫຍ່ທີ່ສຸດຂອງລາຍຮັບຫຼັກຈາກ 500 ບໍລິສັດຊັ້ນນໍາຂອງຂະແຫນງການໃນທຸກຂະແໜງການຂອງ S&P XNUMX.

Put another way, 22% of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector generate 67% of the sector’s Core Earnings.

ຮູບທີ 2: ຫ້າບໍລິສັດສ້າງກຳໄລຫຼັກຂອງຂະແໜງພະລັງງານ 67%

ລາຍໄດ້ສູງສຸດເບິ່ງລາຄາຖືກເມື່ອທຽບກັບພາກສ່ວນພະລັງງານທີ່ເຫຼືອ

ຫ້າບໍລິສັດທີ່ກວມເອົາ 67% ຂອງລາຍໄດ້ຫຼັກຂອງຂະແຫນງພະລັງງານການຄ້າໃນອັດຕາສ່ວນ P / CE ພຽງແຕ່ 13.5, ໃນຂະນະທີ່ອີກ 18 ບໍລິສັດໃນຂະແຫນງການຄ້າໃນອັດຕາສ່ວນ P /CE ຂອງ 19.2.

Per Figure 3, investors are paying a premium for some of the lowest earners in the sector, while the top earning companies, which again include Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, and Pioneer Natural Resources, trade at a discount.

ຮູບທີ 3: ຄວາມແຕກຕ່າງຂອງລາຍຮັບ ແລະ ການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຂອງຂະແໜງພະລັງງານ S&P 500

To quantify the expectations for future profit growth, I look at the price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio, which measures the difference between the market’s expectations for future profits and the no-growth value of the stock. Overall, the Energy sector’s PEBV ratio through 6/13/22 is 0.9. Three of the five top earning Energy sector stocks trade at or below the PEBV of the overall sector. Additionally, each of the five companies have grown Core Earnings at double-digit compound annual growth rates (CAGR) over the past five years, which further illustrates the disconnect between current valuation, past profits, and future profits.

ເທກໂນໂລຍີ: ການຂຸດຂຸມເລິກເປີດເຜີຍຜູ້ຊະນະຂະຫນາດໃຫຍ່ຈໍານວນຫນ້ອຍ

When I look below the surface, I see that the Technology sector’s Core Earnings, at $480.5 billion, are unevenly distributed, though slightly less top heavy as the Energy sector.

Apple IncAAPL
, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms (META), and Intel Corporation, make up 61% of the sector’s Core Earnings.

Put another way, 6% of the companies in the S&P 500 Technology sector generate 61% of the sector’s Core Earnings. Expanding this analysis, I also find that the top 10 companies, or 13% of the S&P 500 Technology sector companies, make up 73% of the sectors Core Earnings.

ຮູບທີ 4: ມີພຽງແຕ່ບໍລິສັດຈໍານວນຫນ້ອຍເທົ່ານັ້ນທີ່ຄອບງໍາກໍາໄລຂອງຂະແໜງເຕັກໂນໂລຢີ

ບໍ່ໄດ້ຈ່າຍເງິນຄ່ານິຍົມສຳລັບບໍລິສັດຂະແໜງເຕັກໂນໂລຊີທີ່ມີລາຍໄດ້ສູງສຸດ

ຫ້າບໍລິສັດທີ່ປະກອບເປັນ 61% ຂອງການຄ້າລາຍຮັບຫຼັກຂອງຂະແຫນງເຕັກໂນໂລຊີໃນອັດຕາສ່ວນ P/CE ຂອງ 20.3, ໃນຂະນະທີ່ອີກ 74 ບໍລິສັດໃນຂະແຫນງການຄ້າໃນອັດຕາສ່ວນ P/CE ຂອງ 24.7.

Per Figure 5, investors can get the Technology sector’s top earning companies at a significant discount, based on P/CE ratio, compared to the rest of the Technology sector. I’ve recently featured three of the top earners, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Intel as Long Ideas and argued each deserves a premium valuation given respective large scale, strong cash generation, and diversified business operations.

ຮູບທີ 5: ຄວາມແຕກຕ່າງຂອງລາຍຮັບ ແລະ ການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຂອງຂະແໜງເຕັກໂນໂລຊີ S&P 500

Overall, the Technology sector’s PEBV ratio through 6/13/22 is 1.4. Four of the top five earners (Microsoft being the lone stock) trades at or below the PEBV of the overall sector. Additionally, four of the five companies have grown Core Earnings at a double-digit CAGR over the past five years, which further illustrates the disconnect between current valuation, past profits, and future profits.

ວັດສະດຸພື້ນຖານ: ການຂຸດຂຸມເລິກເປີດເຜີຍລັກສະນະທີ່ຫນັກແຫນ້ນຂອງຂະແຫນງການ

ເມື່ອຂ້ອຍເບິ່ງດ້ານລຸ່ມ, ຂ້ອຍເຫັນວ່າລາຍໄດ້ຫຼັກຂອງຂະແຫນງວັດສະດຸພື້ນຖານ, ຢູ່ທີ່ 60.1 ຕື້ໂດລາ, ຍັງຖືກແຈກຢາຍບໍ່ເທົ່າທຽມກັນ, ເຖິງແມ່ນວ່າຈະຫນ້ອຍກວ່າຂະແຫນງພະລັງງານແລະເຕັກໂນໂລຢີ.

ບໍລິສັດ Nucorເປືອຍກາຍ
, Dow Inc.Dow
, LyondellBasell ອຸດສາຫະກໍາ LYB
, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), ແລະ Linde PLCລິນ
, ເຮັດໃຫ້ເຖິງ 53% ຂອງລາຍຮັບຫຼັກຂອງຂະແຫນງການ.

Put another way, 20% of the companies in the S&P 500 Basic Materials sector generate 53% of the sector’s Core Earnings.

ຮູບທີ 6: ຫ້າບໍລິສັດຄອບຄອງກຳໄລຂອງຂະແໜງວັດສະດຸພື້ນຖານ

ບໍລິສັດຂະແຫນງວັດສະດຸພື້ນຖານການຄ້າໃນສ່ວນຫຼຸດຂະຫນາດໃຫຍ່

ຫ້າບໍລິສັດທີ່ປະກອບເປັນ 53% ຂອງການຄ້າລາຍຮັບຫຼັກຂອງຂະແໜງວັດສະດຸພື້ນຖານໃນອັດຕາ P/CE 9.7, ໃນຂະນະທີ່ອີກ 21 ບໍລິສັດໃນຂະແຫນງການຄ້າມີອັດຕາສ່ວນ P/CE 18.2.

ຕາມຮູບ 7, ເຖິງແມ່ນວ່າຈະສ້າງລາຍຮັບຫຼັກໃນຂະແຫນງການຫຼາຍກວ່າເຄິ່ງຫນຶ່ງ, ແຕ່ຫ້າບໍລິສັດຊັ້ນນໍາກວມເອົາພຽງແຕ່ 38% ຂອງມູນຄ່າຕະຫຼາດຂອງຂະແຫນງການທັງຫມົດແລະການຄ້າໃນອັດຕາສ່ວນ P / CE ເກືອບເຄິ່ງຫນຶ່ງຂອງບໍລິສັດອື່ນໆໃນຂະແຫນງການ. ນັກລົງທຶນກໍາລັງວາງຄ່ານິຍົມຢ່າງມີປະສິດທິພາບໃນລາຍໄດ້ຕ່ໍາແລະພາຍໃຕ້ການຈັດສັນທຶນໃຫ້ແກ່ບໍລິສັດໃນຂະແຫນງການທີ່ມີລາຍຮັບຫຼັກທີ່ສູງທີ່ສຸດໂດຍຜ່ານ TTM ສິ້ນສຸດລົງໃນ 1Q22.

ຮູບທີ 7: ຄວາມແຕກຕ່າງຂອງລາຍຮັບ ແລະ ການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຂອງຂະແໜງວັດສະດຸພື້ນຖານຂອງ S&P 500

Overall, the Basic Material sector’s PEBV ratio through 6/13/22 is 0.9. Four of the top five (Linde being the lone stock) earners trades below the PEBV of the overall sector. Additionally, three of the five companies have grown Core Earnings at a double-digit CAGR over the past five years. One (LyondellBasell) has grown at an 8% CAGR and Dow doesn’t have history dating back five years due to its formation in 2019. These growth rates further illustrate the disconnect between current valuation, past profits, and future profits for these industry leaders.

ເລື່ອງຄວາມພາກພຽນ – ການວິເຄາະພື້ນຖານທີ່ເໜືອກວ່າໃຫ້ຄວາມເຂົ້າໃຈ

ການຄອບງໍາຂອງລາຍໄດ້ຫຼັກຈາກບໍລິສັດບໍ່ຫຼາຍປານໃດ, ບວກກັບການຕັດການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຂອງຜູ້ທີ່ມີລາຍໄດ້ສູງສຸດ, ສະແດງໃຫ້ເຫັນວ່າເປັນຫຍັງນັກລົງທຶນຈໍາເປັນຕ້ອງມີຄວາມພາກພຽນທີ່ເຫມາະສົມກ່ອນທີ່ຈະລົງທຶນ, ບໍ່ວ່າຈະເປັນຫຼັກຊັບສ່ວນບຸກຄົນຫຼືແມ້ກະທັ້ງກະຕ່າຂອງຫຼັກຊັບໂດຍຜ່ານ ETF ຫຼືເຊິ່ງກັນແລະກັນ. ກອງທຶນ.

Those rushing to invest in the Energy, Technology, or Basic Materials sectors and doing so blindly through passive funds are allocating to a significant amount of firms with less earnings strength than the entire sector as a whole would indicate.

ການເປີດເຜີຍ: David ຄູຝຶກ, Kyle Guske II, ແລະ Matt Shuler ບໍ່ໄດ້ຮັບຄ່າຕອບແທນໃດໆທີ່ຈະຂຽນກ່ຽວກັບຫຼັກຊັບ, ຮູບແບບ, ຫຼືຫົວຂໍ້ໃດ ໜຶ່ງ ທີ່ແນ່ນອນ.