Passengers wait to board a train at Hongqiao railway station in Shanghai on December 6, 2022.
Hector Retamal | Afp | ຮູບພາບ Getty
BEIJING — As mainland China relaxes many of its stringent Covid controls, analysts point out the country is far from a quick return to a pre-pandemic situation.
National authorities announced sweeping changes on Wednesday to make it easier to travel domestically, keep businesses operating and allow Covid patients to quarantine at home.
“These measures are much welcome for an economy that has been severely battered this year,” Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu and a team said in a report.
“However, we would also caution that the road to full reopening may still be gradual, painful and bumpy,” they said. The country does not appear well prepared for a massive wave of infections, and the infection rate of 0.13% leaves the country far below that needed for herd immunity, according to the report.
Mainland China’s daily Covid infections, mostly asymptomatic, surged to a record high above 40,000 in late November. The number has since tapered off as cities reduced virus testing requirements.
The path forward for China to reopen may take a few months, with a surge in infections likely, according to a Goldman Sachs report on Dec. 4.
“With most of the population uninfected before reopening, lower elderly vaccination rates than many other economies, and cultural similarities, we think Hong Kong and Taiwan’s reopenings are most relevant for Mainland China,” said chief China economist Hui Shan and a team.
“Their experiences suggest that cases are likely to skyrocket upon reopening and linger for a while, a high elderly vaccination rate is key to a safe reopening, and mobility declines sharply as cases rise,” the Goldman report said.
In the last two months, Taiwan no longer required international travelers to quarantine upon arrival, and said people did not have to wear masks outdoors.
60% of people may get Covid
Last week, mainland Chinese authorities announced another push to vaccinate the country’s elderly.
Whether out of necessity or precaution, local demand for related medication was already on the rise.