ປະຊາກອນຂອງຈີນຫຼຸດລົງເປັນເທື່ອທຳອິດໃນຮອບ 60 ປີ—ນີ້ຄືເຫດຜົນ

Topline

China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time in decades, the National Bureau of Statistics ກ່າວວ່າ on Tuesday, a shift signaling a looming demographic crisis that could have far-reaching consequences for Beijing despite government efforts to reverse the decline.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງສໍາຄັນ

China had a population of 1.41175 billion people at the end of 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said, down 850,000 from the year before.

There were some 9.56 million recorded births and 10.4 million deaths, the bureau said.

China’s birthrate fell to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2022, the bureau said, down from 7.52 the year before and the lowest since records began more than 70 years ago.

Beijing also recorded its highest mortality rate since the mid-1970s, rising to 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people and up from 7.18 in 2021.

The figures, which only cover mainland China and do not count foreign residents, mark the first time China’s population has fallen since the early 1960s, when a set of disastrous economic policies known as the Great Leap Forward pushed by then-leader Mao Zedong gave rise to the biggest famine ໃນປະຫວັດສາດທີ່ທັນສະໄຫມ.

China has reported few Covid deaths over the last three years—Beijing has been accused of underreporting the extent of outbreaks—but officials ກ່າວວ່າ the stresses associated with the pandemic ປະກອບສ່ວນ towards the decline in births and marriages.

ຄວາມເປັນມາຫຼັກ

The population data signal an important and historic moment for China and the start of what is ຄາດວ່າຈະ to be a long period of demographic decline. The contraction is not unexpected and the birthrate has been falling for years. It has continued to fall despite a ຂ້າ of government policies to encourage people to have kids, implemented by officials who are increasingly concerned about the ເສດຖະກິດ and social challenges the country faces with an aging population and the shrinking size of its labor pool, key to the country’s ascendance as a major world power. Such policies include expanding access to fertility treatments, cutting access to abortion and scrapping its ນະໂຍບາຍລູກດຽວ, which forbade couples from having more than one child under most circumstances. Beijing later ຂຶ້ນ the number of permitted children again, from two to three children per married couple, in an effort to boost births. Decades of the one child policy, which imposed harsh ໂທດ for noncompliance, rising costs of living and ການ​ປ່ຽນ​ແປງ​ທັດ​ສະ​ນະ​ຄະ​ have all contributed to the overall decline and these government policies to increase births have been largely unsuccessful. Strict zero Covid restrictions ມີ accelerated the decline during the pandemic. The number of women of childbearing age is also falling, dropping by 4m in 2022, according to bureau director Kang Yi, the Times ທາງດ້ານການເງິນ ລາຍງານ.

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນສັງເກດເບິ່ງ

India, with a ປະຊາກອນ of more than 1.4 billion, is ຄາດວ່າຈະ to overtake China as the world’s most populous country this year, according to UN estimates. Both are currently home to around four times the number of people than the U.S., presently the world’s third most populous country. China’s population is ຄາດວ່າຈະ to drop sharply throughout the century, according to UN models, and will be roughly half its current size by 2100. Despite this, models project it will remain the world’s most populous country after India.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງທີ່ຫນ້າປະຫລາດໃຈ

The implications of three-and-a-half decades of the one child policy reach far beyond a drop in births. The policy also helped bring about a significant gender imbalance that has skewed the population male, documented by Mara Hvistendahl in ການເລືອກຜິດທໍາມະຊາດ. Strict limits to have just a single child collided with a widespread cultural preference for sons, the possibility of prenatal testing for sex and, then, sex-selective abortion, to make this possible. In 2022, the bureau said there were around 105 men for every 100 women.

ອ່ານ​ເພີ່ມ​ເຕີມ

ປະຊາກອນໂລກມີເຖິງ 8 ພັນລ້ານຄົນ—ນີ້ຄືສິ່ງທີ່ເຈົ້າຕ້ອງຮູ້ (Forbes)

ນະໂຍບາຍ Zero-Covid ຂອງຈີນປະສົບຜົນສໍາເລັດ - ຈົນກ່ວາມັນບໍ່ໄດ້. ນີ້ແມ່ນສິ່ງທີ່ຜິດພາດແລະສິ່ງທີ່ຜູ້ຊ່ຽວຊານຄິດວ່າອາດຈະເກີດຂຶ້ນຕໍ່ໄປ. (Forbes)

China’s Great Famine: the true story (ຜູ້ປົກຄອງ)

ການເລືອກຜິດທໍາມະຊາດ (Book by Mara Hvistendahl)