ຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກຂອງຜູ້ສ້າງເຮືອນໄດ້ຖອກລົງທຸກໆເດືອນໃນປີນີ້ - ແຕ່ສຸດທ້າຍກໍ່ມີ 'ສາຍເງິນ'

Topline

Home builder confidence plunged every single month this year as higher interest rates weakened demand in the formerly booming housing market, the National Association of Home Builders reported Monday, but with the Federal Reserve finally starting to slow down on its aggressive interest rate hikes, economists think the end of the collapse could be in sight—even if a full-blown recovery isn’t.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງສໍາຄັນ

Builder confidence in the market for new homes posted its 12th-straight monthly decline in December, dropping 2 points to 31—down from 84 points one year ago and hitting the lowest lowest level since 2012, excluding a historic plunge at the start of the pandemic, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index ປ່ອຍອອກມາ ວັນຈັນ.

The association called the ongoing collapse a byproduct of high inflation and high mortgage rates, which have made homes less affordable and deterred demand from prospective home buyers—forcing some 62% of builders to use ແຮງຈູງໃຈ (such as price reductions and mortgage rate buy-downs) to bolster sales.

The worse-than-expected report also showed 35% of builders reduced prices by an average of 8% in December, up from 5% earlier in the year.

In a statement, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said he expects weaker housing conditions to persist next year before a recovery in 2024, as the Fed reverses its aggressive monetary policy of this year; however, he also outlined a “silver lining” in the report.

Dietz notes this month’s drop in the index marks the smallest decline in the past six months—a sign builder sentiment could soon start to fall—and for the first time since April, builders now expect future sales will actually increase, thanks in part to mortgage rates falling to 6.3% from a peak above 7% in recent weeks.

In emailed comments, Pantheon Macro senior economist Kieran Clancy agreed that the rise in expected sales signals home sales may soon stop falling, as quickly as the first quarter, but he cautioned a “meaningful recovery is still a long way off,” noting home prices have “much further to fall” as higher interest rates linger in the coming quarters.

ຄວາມເປັນມາຫຼັກ

The housing market has suffered from dwindling demand as the Fed’s interest rate hikes drive up mortgage rates—and the cost of homebuying. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales in October ຂົນ ​ເປັນ​ເດືອນ​ທີ 4.4 ​ຕິດຕໍ່​ກັນ​ເປັນ​ອັດຕາ​ປີ​ທີ່ XNUMX ລ້ານ​ຄົນ. Ushering ໃນການຫຼຸດລົງ, ໄດ້ ໂດຍສະເລ່ຍ rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage has more than doubled over the past year, according to Freddie Mac.

ຄຳ ເວົ້າທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນ

“The Fed slowing down their rate hikes will send a signal that we are close to the bottom,” says Tejas Joshi, a director at investment firm Yieldstreet. “Expect that to happen by summer 2023.”

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນສັງເກດເບິ່ງ

The home builder release kicks off a busy week for new data on the housing market. On Tuesday, the Census Department is slated to release its monthly report on housing starts, and the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday will report existing home sales for last month.

ກະທັດຮັດ

ການຂາຍສະເລ່ຍ ລາຄາ of homes sold in the U.S. hit a record $454,900 in the third quarter, up from $411,200 one year earlier, according to the Census Bureau.

ອ່ານ​ເພີ່ມ​ເຕີມ

ການຄາດຄະເນຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສສໍາລັບປີ 2023: ລາຄາເຮືອນຈະຫຼຸດລົງເປັນຄັ້ງທໍາອິດໃນທົດສະວັດ. (Forbes)

ຊາວ​ອາ​ເມ​ຣິ​ກັນ​ໄດ້​ສູນ​ເສຍ 6.8 ພັນ​ຕື້​ໂດ​ລາ​ໃນ​ປີ​ນີ້ ຍ້ອນ​ຮຸ້ນ​ລົ້ມ​ລະ​ລາຍ, ຕະຫຼາດ​ເຮືອນ​ຢູ່​ພັງ​ທະ​ລາຍ​ລົງ ແລະ​ເງິນ​ຝາກ​ປະ​ຢັດ​ຫຼຸດ​ລົງ. (Forbes)

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/12/19/housing-market-recession-home-builder-sentiment-tanked-every-month-this-year-but-theres-finally-a-silver-lining/