ຕະຫຼາດທີ່ພັກອາໃສມີຄວາມເຂັ້ມແຂງຕໍ່ການຈ້າງງານທີ່ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 'ໄວໆນີ້' ໃນຂະນະທີ່ຜູ້ໃຫ້ກູ້ຢືມເງິນ, ຜູ້ຂາຍເຮືອນໄດ້ຕັດວຽກຫຼາຍພັນຄົນ.

Topline

Though the labor market’s overall resilience continues to puzzle experts, the plight of rising interest rates, which are spurring a historic plunge in home sales, could soon lead to a rash of harsher job cuts across the housing sector—which alongside the technology industry has already seen firms lay off thousands of workers in recent months.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງສໍາຄັນ

Despite a stronger-than-expected jobs ບົດ​ລາຍ​ງານ on Friday, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson says the resilience “likely will change over the next couple months,” as the impact of rising rates ripples across the economy, with rate-sensitive sectors like housing among those expected to be hardest hit.

“It’s a certainty that layoffs soon will be rising across the entire housing ecosystem,” says Shepherdson, warning the struggles will be akin to those illustrated by well-publicized tech layoffs, which hit giants Stripe and Twitter last week and could continue this week with Facebook-parent Meta.

“The housing market has cooled as interest rates scare off new buyers,” explains Andrew Challenger of career services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, noting housing starts and permits have both fallen as brokerage firm Redfin reports that existing home sales plummeted 35% in the year through late-October—the biggest drop since it began collecting data in 2015.

It remains vastly unclear just how many jobs could be on the line, but already a rash of firms in the housing sector have started implementing mega-sized layoffs, with home-selling platform Opendoor last week ໂດຍກ່າວວ່າ it was slashing about 18% of its workforce, some 550 workers, as the company navigates “​​one of the most challenging real estate markets in 40 years.”

Lenders have also been hit hard: This summer mortgage giant LoanDepot ປະ​ກາດ thousands of job cuts, and Wells Fargo is ລາຍງານວ່າ looking to some 2,000 loan officers as mortgage volume plummets 90% year over year.

“The changes we’ve recently made are the result of the broader rate environment and consistent with the response of other lenders in the industry,” a Wells Fargo spokesman told CNBC in a statement, adding the bank “regularly” adjusts staffing levels to align with market conditions.

ຄຳ ເວົ້າທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນ

“Layoffs are not yet rising— and the bar to letting people go probably is higher than in previous cycles, given how much trouble firms had re-hiring people after the initial Covid shock—but that likely will change over the next couple months,” says Shepherdson.

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນສັງເກດເບິ່ງ

Home improvement giants Home Depot and Lowe’s are sure to give an update on how the housing market downturn has impacted business when they report earnings next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

ຄວາມເປັນມາຫຼັກ

ລາຄາທີ່ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນສູງໄດ້ບັງຄັບໃຫ້ທະນາຄານກາງທົ່ວໂລກຫັນປ່ຽນມາດຕະການນະໂຍບາຍຍຸກໂລກລະບາດທີ່ຫມາຍເຖິງການຊຸກຍູ້ຕະຫຼາດ - ແລະການເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຂອງອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ຂອງ Federal Reserve ມົນຕີຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສໃນອະດີດທີ່ຂະຫຍາຍຕົວຢ່າງຫນັກແຫນ້ນ. ການຂາຍເຮືອນໃຫມ່ຫຼຸດລົງຕໍ່າສຸດໃນຮອບຫົກປີໃນຊ່ວງລຶະເບິ່ງຮ້ອນນີ້, ແລະຄໍາຮ້ອງສະຫມັກຈໍານອງຫຼຸດລົງ ແນະນໍາ ການພັງທະລາຍຈະຮ້າຍແຮງກວ່າເກົ່າ. ປະທານ Fed Jerome Powell ມີຫຼາຍຄັ້ງ ເວົ້າເຖິງ ຕໍ່ "ສະຖານະການທີ່ສັບສົນ" ຂອງຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສໃນຊ່ວງລຶະເບິ່ງຮ້ອນນີ້, ໂດຍກ່າວວ່າລາຄາຈະເຢັນລົງຍ້ອນວ່າອັດຕາການຈໍານອງເປັນປົກກະຕິໃນລະດັບທີ່ສູງຂຶ້ນຫຼັງຈາກຍັງຕໍ່າລົງໃນປະຫວັດສາດໃນລະຫວ່າງການແຜ່ລະບາດ.

ອ່ານ​ເພີ່ມ​ເຕີມ

ປະທານ Fed Jerome Powell—Hunted by the Ghost of Paul Volcker—ສາມາດດຶງເສດຖະກິດໄດ້. (Forbes)

Housing Market Collapse: ‘Forceful’ Slowdown In Home Prices As Warning Signs Become ‘Eerily Similar’ To 2000s Crisis (Forbes)

ຕະຫຼາດ​ແຮງ​ງານ​ໄດ້​ເພີ່ມ​ວຽກ​ເຮັດ​ງານ​ທຳ 261,000 ຄົນ​ໃນ​ເດືອນ​ຕຸລາ ຍ້ອນ​ການ​ຫວ່າງ​ງານ​ເພີ່ມ​ຂຶ້ນ​ເປັນ 3.7% (Forbes)

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/11/07/housing-market-braces-for-rising-layoffs-soon-as-mortgage-lenders-home-sellers-cut-thousands-of-jobs/