ແນວໃດ 'Black Panther' ສ້າງຄວາມຄາດຫວັງທີ່ບໍ່ເປັນຈິງສໍາລັບຮູບເງົາ MCU ໃນອະນາຄົດ

Walt Disney ແລະ Marvel's Thor: ຮັກແລະ Thunder earned another $12.39 million on its fourth day of release, dropping 62% from its $32.5 million Sunday. That brings its four-day domestic cume to $156.6 million and, presuming its 47.5/52.5 domestic/overseas split remains, $329.4 million worldwide. That 62% drop is more on less on par with Ant-Man (-57% after a $58 million opening weekend), spider Man: Homecoming (-58% after a $117 million debut weekend), Ant-Man ແລະ Wasp (-62% after a $76 million launch), Spider-Man: ໄກຈາກບ້ານ (-57% after a $185 million Tues-Sun debut) and Black widow (-59% after an $80 million opening weekend). Those are the MCU movies that opened in early July from 2015 to 2021, with a gap in 2016 (when Ghostbusters: ຕອບການໂທ debuted with $46 million) and 2020 (when the top movie of the weekend was Empire ໄດ້ໂຈມຕີຄືນ). At this rate, it’ll end its first week between $191 million (if it legs like Black widow) ແລະ $204 ລ້ານ (ຖ້າມັນຂາມັກ Ant-Man).

So, thus far, and this includes a likely over/under 62% second-weekend drop, Thor: ຮັກແລະ Thunder is playing exactly like a mid-summer Marvel movie. That Taika Waititi’s Thor 4 is disappointing because it only opened as well as James Gunn’s ຜູ້ປົກຄອງຂອງ Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146 million in 2017 with rave reviews and massive goodwill toward James Gunn’s first ຜູ້ປົກຄອງ flick) makes no more sense than arguing that ທ່ານ ໝໍ ແປກປະຫຼາດໃນຄວາມຫຼາກຫຼາຍຂອງບ້າ is a disappointment because it didn’t crack $1 billion global. The Sam Raimi-directed fantasy sequel had no revenue from China and Russia and a $950 million cume that makes it still Marvel’s third-biggest no-Tony Stark/no Peter Parker grosser. Fun fact: Matt Reeves’ The Batman didn’t have to crack $1 billion to be a hit either. I went from being dragged for arguing that it would only earn around $650-$750 million to defending its status as a hit when it earned $770 million (including just $25 million from China).

Save for two prominent examples that I’ll get to in a moment, the biggest “no Spider-Man or Iron Man” MCU grossers were, heading into 2020, Thor: Ragnarök with $854 million in 2017 and ຜູ້ປົກຄອງຂອງ Galaxy Vol. 2 with $869 million in 2017. Before that, the top MCU earners were Captain America: The Winter Soldier (714 ລ້ານໂດລາໃນປີ 2014) ແລະ ຜູ້ປົກຄອງຂອງ Galaxy ໄດ້ ($773 million in 2014), followed by Doctor Strange (677 ລ້ານໂດລາໃນປີ 2016) ແລະ Thor: ໂລກຊ້ໍາ ($644 million in 2013). However, the relative overperformances of ສີດໍາ Panther ($700 million domestic and $1.346 billion worldwide) in 2018 and Captain Marvel ($427 million domestic and $1.128 billion worldwide in 2019) may have skewed the expectations of every MCU movie. The size of those numbers, especially for Ryan Coogler’s ສີດໍາ Panther (which outgrossed the first three out of four Avengers ຮູບເງົາ in North America), suggests audiences who showed up who otherwise weren’t all that interested in the past or future MCU movies.

Captain Marvel was the first big-deal solo female superhero movie in the franchise and acted as a glorified prologue to Avengers: Endgame. That partially (but not totally) explains why it earned about as much worldwide as Spider-Man: ໄກຈາກບ້ານ ($1.31 billion two months after Avengers: Endgame) ແລະ Aquaman ($1.148 billion in 2018, including $298 million from China). However, Ant-Man ແລະ Wasp opened after ສີດໍາ Panther ແລະຫຼັງຈາກ Avengers: ສົງຄາມ Infinity ($679 million/$2.048 billion) and ended with a big “clue” as to Infinity War’s shocking cliffhanger and still earned “just” $216 million domestic and (thanks to $125 million from China) $620 million global. Yes, the Marvel brand did the work of lifting all its boats. It did more than DC Films, as blow-out hits like Aquaman ແລະ Joker barely moved the needle for smaller, cheaper films like Shazam ແລະ Birds of Prey). However, it didn’t automatically put every MCU movie on the same playing field as ສີດໍາ Panther ແລະ Spider-Man: ບໍ່ມີທາງກັບບ້ານ.

I will argue that, in the eyes of too many pundits and/or perpetually online folks, the blow-out successes of ສີດໍາ Panther ແລະ (ໃນ​ຂອບ​ເຂດ​ຫນ້ອຍ​) Captain Marvel set the bar way too high for any and/or every upcoming MCU movie. That’s especially true for Black Panther since Captain ຂອງ Marvel no China/Russia total is $954 million or tied with Doctor Strange 2. ແຕ່ ສີດໍາ Panther was a monumental event. It stood out from the broader MCU narrative just as (for example) ຢູ່ປາຍ 2, Rambo: ເລືອດພາກທີ II or ຊ້ໍາ Knight vastly overperformed in comparison to their respective predecessors. Whether “we” should have seen it coming (as opposed to it “only” earning $400 million domestic and maybe $850 million worldwide), I’m guessing even Disney didn’t. They otherwise wouldn’t have slotted Ava DuVernay’s A Wrinkle in Time just weeks later. Throw in whatever boosts both films got concerning Infinity War ແລະ Endgame, and you have a scenario that won’t be repeated with just any MCU flick.

Thor: ຮັກແລະ Thunder could be more frontloaded (even after the second weekend) due to mixed reviews and buzz (think Batman & Robin) and the “on Disney+ in 45 days” factor. Conversely, the total lack of live-action four-quadrant tentpole newbies between now and Dwayne Johnson’s Black Adam on October 21 will give it the same advantage that spider Man: Homecoming had in 2017 between itself and Thor: Ragnarök in November. If it “only” earns $715 million, that’s tied with Thor 3 sans China and Russia. Such a result should not automatically cause alarm or brand-wide concern. Doctor Strange 2 just pulled the second biggest (sans China and Russia) global grosser for any “no Spider-Man and no Iron Man” MCU flick, even with Covid variables and a shorter window. Before Black Panther ແລະ Black widow, $650-$850 million would be more than good enough for “just another Marvel movie.” I’d argue, relative to budget, word of mouth, scheduling and post-Covid variables, it still is. Wakanda ຕະຫຼອດໄປ, however, may be an event unto itself.