ເຈົ້າ​ໜ້າ​ທີ່​ຄົນ​ນຶ່ງ​ເຕືອນ​ວ່າ 'ຄວາມ​ຜິດ​ພາດ​ທີ່​ມີ​ຄ່າ​ໃຊ້​ຈ່າຍ' ຖ້າ​ທະ​ນາ​ຄານ​ກາງ​ຫຼຸດ​ລົງ​ໄວ​ເກີນ​ໄປ

Topline

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday set the stage for additional interest rate hikes in the coming months and revealed officials still aren’t convinced any rate cuts will be necessary this year—dashing hopes the central bank would pivot from the aggressive policy that has rattled investors, tanked the housing market and ushered in telltale signs of a looming recession.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງສໍາຄັນ

ອີງຕາມການ ສະ​ຫຼຸບ​ສັງ​ລວມ released Wednesday, Fed officials at their latest meeting in December deemed additional interest rate hikes in the coming months would be “appropriate” to help slow inflation, and none of them anticipated it would be appropriate to cut rates this year—challenging some ຄວາມຄາດຫວັງ the central bank will do so to stimulate growth.

Officials “welcomed” the slower pace of inflation in October and November, but they stressed it would take “substantially more evidence of progress” to be confident inflation is on a “sustained” path down.

The announcement comes after Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari in a Wednesday post ຮ້ອງໄຫ້ the rapid inflation that hit a 41-year high of 9.1% in June and similarly warned, “it is too soon to definitely declare” inflation has peaked despite mounting ຫຼັກຖານ that it may have.

Citing the prolonged inflation that plagued the 1970s, during which the Fed cut rates prematurely only to have inflation flare back up again, Kashkari, who will vote on the Fed’s interest rate decisions this year, cautioned it would be a “costly error” to prematurely cut rates again, saying the move should only be taken once officials are convinced “we have truly defeated inflation.”

Stocks fell immediately after the Fed’s meeting minutes were released, with the Dow Jones Industrial average erasing a nearly 300-point gain and trading flat by 2:25 p.m. ET.

ຄວາມເປັນມາຫຼັກ

ການຂຶ້ນອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍຂອງ Fed - ແລະການເຄັ່ງຕຶງຂອງທະນາຄານກາງທົ່ວໂລກ - ໄດ້ເຮັດໃຫ້ເກີດການຫຼຸດລົງຢ່າງຫຼວງຫຼາຍໃນຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສແລະຫຼັກຊັບ, ແລະຈໍານວນຜູ້ຊ່ຽວຊານເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ. ກັງວົນ the turmoil could ultimately spark a deep global recession. According to British investment firm Schroders, a rate hike can take up to two years to fully ripple across the economy. Nevertheless, policymakers have largely remained steadfast in their commitment to fight inflation, which remains nearly four times the Fed’s historical 2% target. After their last meeting, officials said ongoing increases “will be appropriate” in order to help bring inflation down to the Fed’s target level.

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນສັງເກດເບິ່ງ

The Fed’s next interest rate announcement is slated for February 1. Bond investors expect a top rate of 4.94%, but economists at Goldman Sachs expect the Fed will deliver quarter-point hikes at their next three meetings—holding top interest rates at 5.25%, the highest level since 2007, for the rest of the year. Incoming inflation data, however, could lower—or raise—these forecasts.

ກະທັດຮັດ

Amid growing recession fears, yields on 10-year Treasurys have fallen as much as 80 basis points below those on two-year Treasurys—marking the steepest yield curve inversion since the 1980s. A Fed study in 2018 ພົບເຫັນ ທຸກໆການຖົດຖອຍໃນຮອບ 60 ປີຜ່ານມາແມ່ນຢູ່ກ່ອນໜ້າດ້ວຍການປີ້ນເສັ້ນໂຄ້ງຜົນຜະລິດ.

ອ່ານ​ເພີ່ມ​ເຕີມ

ສິ່ງ​ທີ່​ຄວນ​ຮູ້​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ເສັ້ນ​ໂຄ້ງ​ຜົນ​ຜະ​ລິດ—ແລະ​ເປັນ​ຫຍັງ​ມັນ​ອາດ​ຄາດ​ຄະ​ເນ​ວ່າ​ຈະ​ເກີດ​ການ​ຖົດ​ຖອຍ (Forbes)

Fed ເພີ່ມອັດຕາຈຸດພື້ນຖານອີກ 50 ຈຸດ (Forbes)

ປະທານ Fed Jerome Powell—Hunted by the Ghost of Paul Volcker—ສາມາດດຶງເສດຖະກິດໄດ້. (Forbes)