ການເງິນ

ລາຍໄດ້ຕາມຖະຫນົນຫຼຸດລົງສໍາລັບ 27% ຂອງ S&P 500 ໃນ 2Q22

09/14/2022
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Street Earnings (based on ລາຍໄດ້ Zacks) overstate profits for the majority of S&P 500 companies. However, there are many S&P 500 companies whose Street Earnings understate their true profits. These companies are more profitable than investors realize and, in most cases, undervalued as well.

ບົດລາຍງານນີ້ສະແດງໃຫ້ເຫັນວ່າ:

  • ອັດຕາສ່ວນ ແລະຂະໜາດຂອງລາຍໄດ້ຕາມຖະໜົນທີ່ບໍ່ໄດ້ລະບຸໄວ້ໃນ S&P 500
  • ເປັນຫຍັງ Street Earnings (ແລະ GAAP ມີລາຍໄດ້) ມີຂໍ້ບົກພ່ອງ
  • ຫ້າບໍລິສັດ S&P 500 ທີ່ມີລາຍຮັບຕາມຖະໜົນຕໍ່າກວ່າ ແລະການຈັດອັນດັບຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ໜ້າສົນໃຈຫຼາຍ

ຫຼາຍກວ່າ 150 ບໍລິສັດ S&P 500 ມີລາຍຮັບຕາມທ້ອງຖະໜົນໜ້ອຍລົງ

For 153 companies in the S&P 500, or 31%, Street Earnings understate Core Earnings for the trailing-twelve-months (TTM) ended calendar 2Q22. In the TTMs ended 2Q21, 120 companies understated their earnings. My Core Earnings research is based on the latest audited financial data, which is the calendar 2Q22 10-Q in most cases. Price data as of 8/12/22.

When Street Earnings understate Core Earnings, they do so by an average of -15% per company, per Figure 1. Street Earnings understate Core Earnings by more than 10% for ~10% of S&P 500 companies.

ຮູບທີ 1: ລາຍໄດ້ຕາມຖະໜົນຫຼຸດລົງ -28% ໂດຍສະເລ່ຍໃນ TTM ຜ່ານ 2Q22

The 153 companies with understated Street Earnings represent 27% of the market cap of the S&P 500 as of 8/12/22, which is the same as through 1Q22, measured with TTM data in each quarter. Average understated % is calculated as Street Distortion, which is the difference between Street Earnings and Core Earnings

ຮູບພາບ

ຮູບທີ 2: ລາຍໄດ້ຕາມຖະໜົນທີ່ບໍ່ໄດ້ລະບຸໄວ້ເປັນ % ຂອງມູນຄ່າຕະຫຼາດ: 2012 ຫາ 8/12/22

ຫ້າລາຍຮັບທີ່ຕໍ່າທີ່ສຸດຢູ່ໃນ S&P 500

Companies that understate earnings are rarer than in years past, but you can find them if you know where to look.

Figure 3 shows five S&P 500 stocks with Very Attractive Stock Ratings and the most understated Street Earnings (based on Street Distortion as a % of Street Earnings per share) over the TTM through 2Q22. “Street Distortion” equals the difference between Core Earnings per share and Street Earnings per share. Investors using Street Earnings miss the true profitability of these businesses.

ຮູບທີ 3: ບໍລິສັດ S&P 500 ທີ່ມີລາຍໄດ້ໜ້ອຍທີ່ສຸດ: TTM ຜ່ານ 2Q22

*ວັດແທກເປັນການບິດເບືອນຖະ ໜົນ ເປັນເປີເຊັນຂອງ EPS ຖະ ໜົນ

ໃນ​ພາກ​ສ່ວນ​ຂ້າງ​ລຸ່ມ​ນີ້​, ຂ້າ​ພະ​ເຈົ້າ​ລາຍ​ລະ​ອຽດ​ຂອງ​ ເຊື່ອງແລະລາຍງານ unusual items that distort GAAP Earnings for VFC CorporationVFC
. All these unusual items are removed from Core Earnings.

VF Corporation’s (VFC) TTM 2Q22 Street Earnings Understated by $0.71/share

The difference between VF Corporation’s TTM 2Q22 Street Earnings ($3.00/share) and Core Earnings ($3.71/share) is $0.71/share, per Figure 4. I call that difference “Street Distortion,” which equals 24% of Street Earnings.

VF Corporation’s TTM 2Q22 GAAP Earnings ($2.58/share) understate Core Earnings by $1.14/share.

ຕົວຢ່າງນີ້ສະແດງໃຫ້ເຫັນວ່າການສ້າງລາຍໄດ້ Street ປະສົບກັບຂໍ້ບົກຜ່ອງຫຼາຍຢ່າງດຽວກັນກັບມາດຕະການ GAAP ຂອງລາຍໄດ້.

Figure 4: Comparing VF Corporation’s GAAP, Street, and Core Earnings: TTM Through 2Q22

Below, I detail the differences between Core Earnings and GAAP Earnings so readers can audit mu research. I would be happy to reconcile Core Earnings with Street Earnings but cannot because I do not have the details on how analysts calculate their Street Earnings.

VF Corporation’s Earnings Distortion Score is strong beat and its Stock Rating is very attractive, in part due to its return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11% and price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.9.

Figure 5 details the differences between VF Corporation’s Core Earnings and GAAP Earnings.

Figure 5: VF Corporation’s GAAP Earnings to Core Earnings Reconciliation: TTM Through 2Q22

ລາຍະລະອຽດເພີ່ມເຕີມ:

ການບິດເບືອນລາຍຮັບທັງໝົດຂອງ -1.14 ໂດລາ/ຫຸ້ນ, ເຊິ່ງເທົ່າກັບ -444 ລ້ານໂດລາ, ປະກອບດ້ວຍດັ່ງຕໍ່ໄປນີ້:

ຄ່າໃຊ້ຈ່າຍທີ່ຜິດປົກກະຕິທີ່ເຊື່ອງໄວ້, ສຸດທິ = -1.11 ໂດລາ/ຕໍ່ຫຸ້ນ, ເຊິ່ງເທົ່າກັບ -436 ລ້ານໂດລາ ແລະປະກອບດ້ວຍ

-$436 million in hidden restructuring expenses in the TTM period based on

$0.5 million in the TTM period based on 0.7 $ ລ້ານ reduction to allowance for doubtful accounts in fiscal 2022 10-K

Reported Unusual Expenses Pre-Tax, Net = -$0.27/per share, which equals -$105 million and is comprised of

- $78 ລ້ານໃນຄ່າໃຊ້ຈ່າຍອື່ນໆໃນໄລຍະເວລາ TTM ໂດຍອີງໃສ່

- $ 4 ລ້ານໂດລາ loss on debt extinguishment in fiscal 3Q22

$24 million contra adjustment for recurring pension costs. These recurring expenses are reported in non-recurring line items, so I add them back and exclude them from Earnings Distortion.

ການ ຈຳ ແນກພາສີ = 0.25 ໂດລາ / ຮຸ້ນ, ເຊິ່ງເທົ່າກັບ 96 ລ້ານໂດລາ

Reported Unusual Expenses After-Tax, Net = <$0.01/per share, which equals $399 thousand and is comprised of

While not equal, the similarities between Street Earnings and GAAP Earnings for VF Corporation indicates that Street Earnings miss many of the unusual items in GAAP Earnings, and the $0.71/share Street Distortion highlights that Core Earnings include a more comprehensive set of unusual items when calculating VF Corporation’s true profitability.

ການເປີດເຜີຍ: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Matt Shuler, ແລະ Brian Pellegrini ບໍ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຊົດເຊີຍທີ່ຈະຂຽນກ່ຽວກັບຫຼັກຊັບ, ແບບ, ຫຼືຫົວຂໍ້ສະເພາະໃດໆ.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/09/14/street-earnings-understated-for-27-of-sp-500-in-2q22/