ແຜນການໃຫ້ອະໄພເງິນກູ້ນັກສຶກສາຈະບໍ່ເຮັດໃຫ້ອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ຮ້າຍແຮງຂຶ້ນ - ເຖິງແມ່ນວ່າມັນຈະເພີ່ມການຂາດດຸນ $ 400 ຕື້, Goldman ເວົ້າວ່າ.

In a Thursday note to clients, economists at Goldman Sachs estimated the Biden Administration’s plan to discharge about $400 billion in student loan balances and lower monthly payments would have an only “small” overall impact on spending—boosting gross domestic product by about 0.1% next year and less in subsequent years.

As a result, the forgiveness would have a “similarly small” effect on inflation—one that would be “more than fully offset” by a separate provision that would end the pause on payments that has been in place since the start of the pandemic in January, the team led by chief economist Jan Hatzius said, noting that the overall effect would help lower inflation “slightly.”

“The headlines are bigger than the macroeconomic impact,” they said, adding that middle-income households will receive the biggest income boost from the plan, for which only borrowers with incomes up to $125,000 (or $250,000 for couples) would qualify, while most lower-income households do not have student debt and will therefore not benefit.

The forgiveness will likely boost the deficit substantially, by an amount roughly equal to the amount of student debt forgiven, but the economists don’t expect much of an impact from that either.

In a separate note on Thursday, Bank of America came to roughly the same conclusion—saying the estimated increase in the deficit over the next 10 years is of similar magnitude to the estimated decrease from the Inflation Reduction Act (also only marginal), meaning the course of inflation would likely not be impacted.