Ballparks MLB ເຫຼົ່ານີ້ແມ່ນມີຄວາມເມດຕາທີ່ສຸດຕໍ່ຄົນຕີໃນປີ 2022

ໃນມື້ວານນີ້ and today in this space, I’m summarizing my 2022 batted ball-based park factors. As I do in my other analysis here, I took all batted balls and compared actual performance to projections based on the application of MLB average production to each exit speed/launch angle “bucket”. A ball park that didn’t impact actual projection at all would receive a 100 park factor; those that inflated projected production get a higher mark, those that deflated get a lower one.

Unlike most park factors, I use one year worth of data, not two or more. The granular nature of the data being utilized tends to smooth things out and yield very reliable results. On a year-to-year basis (2022 vs. 2021), my overall park factors had a 0.66 correlation coefficient. Fly ball park factors correlated even more closely (0.73). Base hit types also correlate pretty closely – particularly homers (0.69), doubles (0.56) and, yes, triples (0.64).

Don’t want to ignore the categories with lower correlation coefficients; liner (0.13) and grounder (0.12) park factors didn’t correlate well this time around. While that’s somewhat normal for liners, grounder park factors usually correlate much more closely. Also, as you might expect, singles park factors (0.24) didn’t correlate as well as other types of base hits.

We tackled the more pitcher-friendly half of the 30 MLB parks yesterday, today, it’s to the more hitter-friendly ones.

#15 – Truist Park (Braves) – 99.2 Overall Park Factor, 90.7 Fly Ball (21st), 93 Home Run (20th)

Actually, you can almost throw a net over the parks in the middle third of this list. Both Truist and its predecessor, Turner Field, have been tough home run parks – neither has posted an average or higher homer park factor in the last decade. It snuck onto the bottom of the hitter-friendly group by being the best park in the majors for singles this season (108 singles park factor). Moving forward, I consider this park as slightly pitcher-friendly.

#14 – Citi Field (Mets) – 99.2 Overall Park Factor, 84.9 Fly Ball (26th), 94 Home Run (19th)

How about the Mets’ and Braves’ home parks essentially finishing in a dead heat on this list, just like they did in the NL East standings? I’ll bet Met fans would rather have prevailed in the opposite race. Pretty neutral park, except for two factors – it’s posted a lower than average triples park factor for 9 of the last 10 seasons, and an average or above singles park factor for 8 straight seasons. It’s tough to be a significantly pitcher-friendly park in light of the latter, even with such an unusually low 2022 fly ball park factor.

#13 – Nationals Park (Nationals) – 99.3 Overall Park Factor, 100.5 Fly Ball (15th), 103 Home Run (13th)

Our tour of the NL East continues (still no Marlins!). Pretty much a neutral park, except for a couple of factors. Like Citi Field, this is not a park in which to hit triples. It hasn’t posted an average or higher triples park factor in the last decade, though the 2022 mark of 99 represents a high over that span. Very quietly, Nationals Park has been very kind to ground balls – it’s only posted one below average grounder park factor in the last 10 years, and has averaged 107.4 over that span, 5th highest in MLB.

#12 – Tropicana Field (Rays) – 99.5 Overall Park Factor, 103.8 Fly Ball (11th), 108 Home Run (9th)

An odd ballpark in many respects. It’s consistently been the most favorable park in the game for ground balls; its 2022 108.7 grounder park factor marked the 9th straight year higher than average, with an AVERAGE of 117.4 over the last decade. Though it only posted a 92 triples park factor in 2022, it had been an above average triples park (usually well above) for the previous five seasons. All in all, a fairly neutral park, though it gets there in unusual ways.

#11 – Globe Life Field (Rangers) – 99.8 Overall Park Factor, 103.2 Fly Ball (12th), 108 Home Run (8th)

In its early days, Globe Life is marking itself as one of those parks that gives up some homers, but compensates by denying runs in other ways (like Yankee Stadium, Minute Maid Park, to name two). Only 7 parks have posted homer park factors of 107 or higher the last two seasons, and Globe Life is one of them. Parks in this family tend to be doubles-deniers; this one has posted doubles park factors of 95 and 90 in 2022 and 2021.

#10 – loanDepot Park (Marlins) – 101.2 Overall Park Factor, 99.3 Fly Ball (16th), 92 Home Run (21st)

It took us until #10 to get to our first park factor above 100. That’s because of the extreme nature of the two at the top, but I digress. What on earth is this park (I was today years old when I learned of its current name) doing with the hitter-friendly group? It actually was even more hitter-friendly in the shortened 2020 season after 7 straight pitcher-friendly seasons. Its 2022 fly ball park factor does represent a high water mark that is unlikely to be repeated, but this has been the most line drive-friendly park (109.1 in 2022) in the game over the last decade (106.8 average). This is about as high on this list as this park can finish – it hasn’t posted an above average homer park factor in the last decade.

#9 – Guaranteed Rate Field (White Sox) – 101.3 Overall Park Factor, 95.9 Fly Ball (17th), 103 Home Run (15th)

This is perhaps the king of the “Homer But Not Necessarily Run-Friendly” parks. It’s one of 7 ballparks that have posted average or higher homer park factors in each of the last 10 seasons. Despite this fact, it’s just as likely as not to post a below average fly ball park factor, largely because it’s a tough park in which to hit a double. It hasn’t posted a doubles park factor over 94 since 2016. Its 2022 homer park factor was the lowest in a decade, so this would be on the lower end of its typical finish.

#8 – Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Angels) – 101.9 Overall Park Factor, 109.3 Fly Ball (8th), 108 Home Run (10th)

You might notice that Petco Park is the only California venue covered to this point. When the spring and summer isn’t unusually warm in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, the California parks (where the temps are always balmy) tend to drift upward on this list. It’s a zero sum game. This park has now been slightly hitter-friendly in 2021-22 after 8 straight pitcher-friendly seasons. Though it has now posted higher than average homer park factors for five straight seasons, this was a 10-year high-water mark for its fly ball park factor. This is about as high as this park will ever be seen on this list. It has consistently suffocated doubles, posting below average doubles park factors in 9 of the last 10 seasons.

#7 – Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) – 104.7 Overall Park Factor, 112.5 Fly Ball (5th), 104 Home Run (12th)

From this point forward, it’s safe to say that the remaining parks clearly functioned as hitter-friendly in 2022. After a relatively neutral period in the mid-2010s, this park has re-emerged as hitter-friendly of late, with seven straight overall park factors, and eight straight fly ball and homer park factors above 100. And none of the single-season 2022 marks were out of whack to the upside – in a given year, this can be a top five hitters’ park.

#6 – Wrigley Field (Cubs) – 104.8 Overall Park Factor, 113.0 Fly Ball (4th), 103 Home Run (14th)

Wrigley has a reputation as a hitters’ park, but that is not entirely true. It is one of the most variable parks in the game. It is somewhat fly ball-friendly (more so on homers than doubles) that can be extremely so in the right weather conditions. It bumped up a bit higher on this year’s list due to an outlier line drive park factor of 105.4, the highest in the past decade. I consider Wrigley as neutral to slightly hitter-friendly, a venue that will jump up and down on this list more than your typical park.

#5 – Oracle Park (Giants) – 107.0 Overall Park Factor, 106.2 Fly Ball (10th), 82 Home Run (28th)

Ok, how could the park with the 3rd lowest homer park factor post the 5th highest overall park factor? Lots of weird stuff. First, and least significantly, pop ups fall in for hits here at over three times the MLB rate. While the park has now posted a higher than average fly ball park factor for three straight seasons. it hasn’t had a homer park factor over 84 in the last decade. It’s always been a great park for triples, and in two of the last three seasons it’s been one of the best doubles parks in the game outside of Fenway. At the end of the day, this is still a fluky high seasonal mark – even its 105.7 grounder park factor (first time above 100 since 2016) was an outlier.

#4 – Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) – 108.4 Overall Park Factor, 107.6 Fly Ball (9th), 112 Home Run (5th)

I would venture to say that almost no one sees Dodger Stadium as a hitters’ park, and while this year’s overall park factor does mark a high over the past decade, there are some truly hitter-friendly aspects to the place. To wit, this is arguably the least likely of the 7 parks that have posted an average or higher homer park factor in each of the last 10 seasons. What it gives in homers, it typically takes in singles – it’s now posted lower than average singles park factors in each of the last 9 seasons, though its 2022 mark was just below at 99. It also posted a 10-year high liner park factor (111.8) after being well below average in that area the previous three seasons. This is as high as this park will ever appear on this list.

#3 – Fenway Park (Red Sox) – 109.7 Overall Park Factor, 127.6 Fly Ball (3rd), 90 Home Run (25th)

Fenway Park is what it’s always been, though I’m not sure many fans really understand the nuances of its park factors. Yes, it inflates run-scoring – but it consistently deflates homer totals. Doubles totals mushroom here – lots of balls that would otherwise become fly ball outs, or homers, become doubles (and even singles). Fenway’s doubles’ park factor has been 107 or higher each of the last 10 seasons, and 116+ in 9 of them. Its singles park factor has been average or higher in 8 of the last 10 seasons. On the other hand, it has posted homer park factors below 100 in 8 of the last 10 seasons. A pretty predictable park that is a clear #3 behind the two most hitter-friendly ones.

#2 – Coors Field (Rockies) – 119.7 Overall Park Factor, 153.2 Fly Ball (1st), 116 Home Run (3rd)

For the first time in the last decade, Coors has been nudged from the top spot on this list. How much of a hitters’ park is this place? Well, its lowest overall park factor over the past decade is 118.9, and in each season over that span it was over two full standard deviations higher than average. Fly ball park factors? Lowest mark is 145.0, less than two standard deviations above average only once. It’s about way more than homers here – though it does inflate them (homer park factors range from 112-133 over the past decade, but leading only once, never two standard deviations above average). Coors dramatically inflates offense on liners, dramatically inflates doubles and triples, you name it. Altitude is the catalyst – fly balls carry farther, fences are set back farther to increase size of outfield and its gaps, and this is the result, humidor or not.

#1 – Great American Ball Park (Reds) – 123.9 Overall Park Factor, 134.9 Fly Ball (2nd), 137 Home Run (1st)

While Coors gives up hits of all types, Great American bludgeoned its way to the top of this list by being by far the easiest mark in the game for home runs. Its homer park factor has been over two standard deviations above league average in six of the last seven seasons, posting an MLB high in all seven. Over the past decade, it’s also been the 2nd most hitter-friendly line drive and 4th most hitter-friendly ground ball park in MLB. Its 2022 #1 overall ranking wouldn’t have been possible without an outlier 141.5 grounder park factor. I don’t expect a repeat #1 finish next season, but Great American as currently constituted should be a strong favorite for the #2 spot behind Coors.