ຍຸດທະສາດການລົງທຶນ 73 ປີນີ້ຍັງເຮັດວຽກຢູ່ໃນມື້ນີ້

ດັ່ງ​ທີ່​ພວກ​ເຮົາ put 2022 out of its misery, I am reflecting back on what worked and what did not this year. There was plenty that did not.

One area that was modestly successful was a screen I’ve used for years based on Benjamin Graham’s “Stocks for the Defensive Investor,” which he laid out in his 1949 masterpiece The Intelligent Investor. I’ve made some modifications to that screen-for one reason due to inflation — but 73 years later, the principles remain sound:

• ຂະຫນາດທີ່ພຽງພໍ. ບໍລິສັດຕ້ອງມີການຂາຍຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ 500 ລ້ານໂດລາຕໍ່ 12 ເດືອນ. (Graham ໃຊ້ເງິນຕໍາ່ສຸດທີ່ 100 ລ້ານໂດລາແລະຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ 50 ລ້ານໂດລາໃນຊັບສິນທັງຫມົດ.)
• ສະພາບການເງິນທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງ. ບໍລິສັດຕ້ອງມີອັດຕາສ່ວນປະຈຸບັນ (ຊັບສິນປະຈຸບັນແບ່ງດ້ວຍໜີ້ສິນປັດຈຸບັນ) ຢ່າງໜ້ອຍ 2.0. ມັນຍັງຕ້ອງມີຫນີ້ສິນໄລຍະຍາວຫນ້ອຍກ່ວາທຶນເຮັດວຽກ.
• ຄວາມໝັ້ນຄົງຂອງລາຍຮັບ. ທຸລະກິດຈະຕ້ອງມີລາຍໄດ້ໃນທາງບວກສໍາລັບເຈັດປີທີ່ຜ່ານມາ. (Graham ໃຊ້​ຢ່າງ​ຫນ້ອຍ 10 ປີ​.)
• ບັນທຶກເງິນປັນຜົນ. ບໍລິສັດຕ້ອງໄດ້ຈ່າຍເງິນປັນຜົນສໍາລັບເຈັດປີທີ່ຜ່ານມາ. (Graham ຕ້ອງການ 20 ປີ.)
• ການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວຂອງລາຍຮັບ. ລາຍຮັບຕ້ອງເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຢ່າງໜ້ອຍ 3% ໃນແຕ່ລະປີ ໃນໄລຍະ 10 ປີຜ່ານມາ. (Graham ບັງຄັບໃຫ້ເພີ່ມຫນຶ່ງສ່ວນສາມຂອງລາຍໄດ້ຕໍ່ຫຸ້ນໃນໄລຍະ XNUMX ປີຫຼ້າສຸດ.)
• ອັດຕາສ່ວນລາຄາຕໍ່ລາຍຮັບປານກາງ (P/E). ຫຸ້ນຕ້ອງມີ P/E ສະເລ່ຍ 15 ຫຼືຕໍ່າກວ່າໃນໄລຍະສາມປີຜ່ານມາ.
• ອັດຕາສ່ວນປານກາງຂອງລາຄາຕໍ່ຊັບສິນ. ອັດຕາສ່ວນລາຄາຕໍ່ລາຍຮັບເທົ່າກັບອັດຕາສ່ວນຂອງລາຄາຕໍ່ປຶ້ມຕ້ອງໜ້ອຍກວ່າ 22.5.
• ບໍ່ມີສາທາລະນູປະໂພກ ຫຼືຮ້ານຂາຍຍ່ອຍ

When I ran that screen in ພຶດ​ສະ​ພາ, 10 names made the cut. Since then (not counting dividends) that group, which included Intel (INTC) , Winnebago (ອົງການ WGO) , Johnson Outdoors (ແລ່ນ) , Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS), ໂລຫະການຄ້າ (CMC), Encore Wire (WIRE), ຜະ​ລິດ​ຕະ​ພັນ​ເສັ້ນ preformed (PLPC), ກຸ່ມບໍລິສັດຊັ້ນສູງ (CMS), ອຸດສາຫະກໍາ Mueller (MLI) , and Amcom Distributing (DIT) are up an average of 4.5% (not including dividends) — ahead of the S&P 500 (down 2.8%) and Russell 2000 (up 1.8%). A narrow victory, for sure. Interestingly, INTC (down 39%) was the worst performer.

I ran that screen again in ເດືອນ​ກໍ​ລະ​ກົດ, and the original 10 from May remained qualifiers, and were joined by Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR)  , Evercore Inc. (EVR)  and Nucor Corp. (ເປືອຍກາຍ) . Since that screen ran, the 13 names are up an average of 3.3%, better than the S&P 500 (down 3.5%) and Russell 2000 (down 3.9%). Again, not a rousing victory but decent.

Running the same screen Friday morning reveals 15 names-that may be the most I’ve seen in the umpteen years I’ve been running this screen. Newbies include Huntsman (HUN) , Korn Ferry (KFY) , Worthington Industries (ເຮັດວຽກ) , Standard Motor Products (ເອພີເອັມພີ) , and Insteel Industries (II) . INTC, RS, and SGC have fallen off.

I will re-run the screen at year-end, and track the qualifiers for a full-year, through 2023.