ການຫວ່າງງານຈະເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນແລະຄວາມກົດດັນດ້ານລາຄາ 'ຮ້າຍແຮງ' ຍັງສືບຕໍ່ຍ້ອນວ່າ Fed ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຄວາມສ່ຽງຕໍ່ການຫຼຸດລົງ, S&P ເຕືອນ

Topline

Economists at S&P Global Ratings on Monday warned the likelihood of a recession over the next year is increasing as the Federal Reserve continues its most aggressive economic tightening cycle in decades—becoming the latest experts warning about the potential implications of rising interest rates, which help ease prices at the expense of economic growth.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງສໍາຄັນ

In a research note ຈັດພີມມາ Monday, a team of economists led by S&P’s Beth Ann Bovino said aggressive Fed policy spurred by ongoing price spikes will usher in low economic growth this year and potentially risk a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product.

S&P forecasts that U.S. GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.4% this year and 1.6% next year—down from forecasts last month calling for growth of 2.4% and 2%, respectively.

Even the labor market, which has posted a ຂໍ້ສັງເກດ strong recovery from the pandemic recession two years ago, will struggle as Fed hikes continue, the economists said, predicting the unemployment rate will rise from 3.6% last month to 4.3% by the end of 2023 and more than 5% by the end of 2025—potentially wiping out the past year’s gains.

“As we inch toward potential recession, we expect the Fed’s stronger action to slow hiring and raise unemployment,” the economists wrote, cautioning that the central bank’s “cure” for the U.S. economy “may feel worse than the disease.”

Though S&P said the economy has enough momentum to avoid a recession this year, it warned “what’s around the bend next year is the bigger worry,” putting the odds of a recession in 2023 at 40%—more than the 35% odds Morgan Stanley ອອກມາ ອາ​ທິດ​ທີ່​ແລ້ວ.

Some have been more optimistic: In a recent note, LPL Financial analysts said the odds of a recession are likely closer to 33%, if not lower, given that corporate earnings are healthy and inflation pressures are likely to ease, even if the “process to get there isn’t smooth for markets.”

ຄຳ ເວົ້າທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນ

“Economic momentum will likely protect the U.S economy from recession in 2022,” S&P economists said Monday. “But, with supply-chain disruptions worsening as the weight of extremely high prices damage purchasing power and aggressive Federal Reserve policy increases borrowing costs, it’s hard to see the economy walking out of 2023 unscathed.”

ຄວາມເປັນມາຫຼັກ

ການຖອນຕົວຂອງ Fed ຂອງມາດຕະການກະຕຸ້ນການແຜ່ລະບາດຂອງພະຍາດຕິດຕໍ່ໄດ້ເຮັດໃຫ້ຫຼັກຊັບຫຼຸດລົງແລະເຮັດໃຫ້ເກີດຄວາມຢ້ານກົວຂອງການຫຼຸດລົງຂອງເສດຖະກິດ. ດັດຊະນີຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ສໍາຄັນ plunged ເຂົ້າໄປໃນອານາເຂດຂອງຕະຫຼາດຫມີໃນຕົ້ນເດືອນນີ້ກ່ອນການຂຶ້ນອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍທີ່ໃຫຍ່ທີ່ສຸດຂອງ Fed ໃນຮອບ 28 ປີ, ແລະຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກທີ່ມືດມົວໄດ້ນໍາໄປສູ່ຄື້ນຟອງຂອງການປົດຕໍາແຫນ່ງໃນບັນດາການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວບໍ່ດົນມານີ້. ເຕັກໂນໂລຊີ ແລະ ອະ​ສັງ​ຫາ​ລິ​ມະ​ຊັບ ບໍລິສັດ. "ພວກເຮົາບໍ່ເຊື່ອວ່າ Fed ສາມາດຢຸດເຊົາບັນຫາທີ່ເຮັດໃຫ້ເກີດອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ໃນດ້ານການສະຫນອງໂດຍບໍ່ມີການທໍາລາຍເສດຖະກິດຢ່າງແທ້ຈິງ, ແຕ່ວ່າໃນຈຸດນີ້, ເບິ່ງຄືວ່າພວກເຂົາຖືກລາອອກຍ້ອນຄວາມຈິງທີ່ວ່າມັນຕ້ອງເຮັດ," Brett Ewing ເວົ້າ. , ຫົວຫນ້າຍຸດທະສາດການຕະຫຼາດຂອງ First Franklin Financial Services.

ໝາຍ ເລກໃຫຍ່

8.6% That’s how quickly consumer prices ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ in the 12 months ending in May, eclipsing economist projections calling for a monthly decline and instead returning to the highest level since 1981.

ອ່ານ​ເພີ່ມ​ເຕີມ

ເປັນຫຍັງເງິນໂດລາທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງແລະຄວາມຜິດພາດຂອງສິນຄ້າຄົງຄັງຂາຍຍ່ອຍສາມາດຊ່ວຍໃຫ້ອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ຫຼຸດລົງໃນປີຫນ້າ (Forbes)

ຕະຫຼາດຫຼັກຊັບອາດຈະຕົກອີກ 20% ຖ້າສະຫະລັດຕົກຢູ່ໃນສະພາບຖົດຖອຍ - ອຸດສາຫະກໍາເຫຼົ່ານີ້ແມ່ນມີຄວາມສ່ຽງທີ່ສຸດ (Forbes)

'ຄວາມຢ້ານກົວທີ່ຮ້າຍແຮງທີ່ສຸດທີ່ຖືກຢືນຢັນ' ໃນຂະນະທີ່ Fed 'ຫຼິ້ນເກມທີ່ເປັນອັນຕະລາຍ' ດ້ວຍອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ແລະອັດຕາການເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຂອງອັດຕາ (Forbes)