ຄວາມຫມີສວນ່ຂອງ Wall Street ກໍາລັງເຕີບໃຫຍ່ຂຶ້ນ

ເລື່ອງນີ້ແມ່ນ ເດີມ published on TKer.co

Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.4% last week. The index is now up 8.9% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 18.8% from its January 3, 2022 closing high of 4,796.56.

ໃນຂະນະດຽວກັນ, ໄດ້ market’s many bears got more company.

Michael Kantrowitz, the chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, expects the S&P 500 to tumble to 3,225 by year end, Bloomberg ລາຍງານວ່າ on Wednesday. This call makes him the most bearish of Wall Street’s top stock market forecasters.

Byron Wien, the legendary former chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley and current vice chairman at Blackstone, ເຕືອນໃນວັນພຸດ that financial markets could slide during the first half of the year before rallying again.

“Despite Fed tightening, the market reaches a bottom by mid-year and begins a recovery comparable to 2009,“ Wien ຂຽນ.

Will the bears be proven right this year? ບາງທີ.

ແຕ່ຄວາມຈິງທີ່ວ່າ so much of Wall Street is bearish may actually produce the opposite result.

“Wall Street is bearish,” Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity strategy at BofA, wrote on Wednesday. “This is bullish.“

Subramanian was referring to the contrarian signal from BofA’s proprietary “Sell Side Indicator,” which tracks average recommended allocation to stocks by U.S. sell-side strategists. While it doesn’t currently reflect “extreme bearishness,” it’s at a level that “suggests an expected price return of +16% over the next 12 months (~4400 for the S&P 500).”

Subramanian’s official target for the S&P 500 is 4,000, which is on the bearish end of Wall Street. Though she has warned against being out of the market at a time when the consensus expects lower prices.

Going into 2022, Wall Street was caught wrong-footed by being too bullish ahead of what became a historic bear market.

Will the consensus be right this time with their bearishness?

We’ll only know in hindsight.

ເລື່ອງຍັງສືບຕໍ່

We do however know that the stock market goes up in most years.

And longer term investors should remember the odds of generating a positive return improves for those who can put in the time.

ກວດເບິ່ງກະແສກະແສໄຟຟ້າມະຫາພາກ 🔀

ມີບາງຈຸດຂໍ້ມູນທີ່ໂດດເດັ່ນຈາກອາທິດທີ່ຜ່ານມາເພື່ອພິຈາລະນາ:

🚨 ການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວຂອງວຽກ. ອີງ​ຕາມ ຂໍ້ມູນ BLS released Friday, U.S. employers added 223,000 jobs in December, stronger than the 203,000 gain ນັກເສດຖະສາດຄາດວ່າ. Over the course of 2022, employers added a whopping 4.5 million jobs.

Almost all major industry categories reported gains. The information sector, which includes the tech industry, saw job losses. For more context on these losses, read: "ຢ່າຖືກຫຼອກລວງໂດຍບົດລາຍງານທີ່ບໍ່ມີສະພາບການຂອງການປົດຕໍາແຫນ່ງເຕັກໂນໂລຢີຂະຫນາດໃຫຍ່ 🤨"

📉Unemployment rate tumbles. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% (or 3.468% unrounded) from 3.6% in the prior month. This is the lowest rate since 1969.

💰 Wage growth cools. Average hourly earnings in December increased by 0.3% month-over-month, cooler than the 0.4% rate expected. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were up 4.6%, which was lower than the 5.0% expected. For more on why this matters, read: “A key chart to watch as the Fed tightens monetary policy 📊“

📈 ຜູ້ປ່ຽນວຽກໄດ້ຮັບເງິນເດືອນດີກວ່າ. ອີງ​ຕາມ ADP, which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in December for people who changed jobs was up 15.2% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 7.3%.

???? There are lots of job openings. ອີງ​ຕາມ ຂໍ້ມູນ BLS released Wednesday, U.S. employers had 10.46 million job openings listed in November, down modestly from 10.51 million openings in October. While openings are below the record high of 11.85 million in March, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

ໃນລະຫວ່າງໄລຍະເວລາ, there were 6.01 million people unemployed. That means there were 1.74 job openings per unemployed person in November. This is down from 1.99 in March, but it still suggests there are lots of opportunities out there for job seekers.

???? Layoff activity is low. ໄດ້ layoff rate (i.e., layoffs as a percentage of total employment) stood at 0.9% in November, unchanged from its October level. It was the 21st straight month the rate was below its pre-pandemic lows.

💼 ການຮ້ອງຂໍການຫວ່າງງານຍັງຕໍ່າ. ການຮ້ອງຂໍເງິນຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອການຫວ່າງງານໃນເບື້ອງຕົ້ນ fell to a three-month low of 204,000 during the week ending Dec. 31, down from 223,000 the week prior. While the number is up from its six-decade low of 166,000 in March, it remains near levels seen during periods of economic expansion.

🛠 Manufacturing cools. ໄດ້ ການຜະລິດ PMI ຂອງ ISM fell to 48.4 in December from 49.0 in November. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the sector.

📉 Services cool. ໄດ້ ການບໍລິການຂອງ ISM PMI fell to 49.6 in December from 56.5 in November. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the sector.

📉 Surveys say prices are cooling. ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Index fell deeper into contraction.

The ISM Services PMI Prices Index suggests prices are still rising, but at a decelerating rate.

⛓️ “Supply chains are back to normal.” From Apollo Global’s chief economist Torsten Slok: “Supply chains are back to normal, and the price of transporting a 40-feet container from China to the US West Coast has declined from $20,000 in September 2021 to $1,382 today, see chart below. This normalization in transportation costs is a significant drag on goods inflation over the coming months.“

New York Fed ຂອງ ດັດຊະນີຄວາມກົດດັນຕ່ອງໂສ້ການສະຫນອງທົ່ວໂລກ — a composite of various supply chain indicators — declined slightly in December and is hovering at levels seen in late 2020. From the NY Fed: “Global supply chain pressures decreased moderately in December, disrupting the upward trend seen over the previous two months. The largest contributing factors to supply chain pressures were rises in Korean delivery times and Taiwanese inventories, but these were more than offset by smaller negative contributions over a larger set of factors.“

📉 ຄ່າເຊົ່າຫຼຸດລົງທີ່ຢູ່ ຈາກ ລາຍຊື່ອາພາດເມັນ: “We estimate that the national median rent fell by 0.8 percent month-over-month in December. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and the third largest monthly decline in the history of our estimates, which start in January 2017. The preceding two months (October and November 2022) are the only two months with sharper declines.“

➕ No more negative yielding debtທີ່ຢູ່ ຈາກ Bloomberg: “The world’s pile of negative-yielding debt has vanished, as Japanese bonds finally joined global peers in offering zero or positive income. The global stock of bonds where investors received sub-zero yields peaked at $18.4 trillion in late 2020, according to Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index of the debt, when central banks worldwide were keeping rates at or below zero and buying bonds to ensure yields were repressed.“

ເອົາໝົດ 🤔

Inflation is cooling from peak levels. Nevertheless, inflation remains high and must cool by a lot more before anyone is comfortable with price levels. So we should expect the Federal Reserve ຈະສືບຕໍ່ຮັດກຸມນະໂຍບາຍການເງິນ, ຊຶ່ງຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າເງື່ອນໄຂທາງດ້ານການເງິນທີ່ເຄັ່ງຄັດ (ເຊັ່ນ: ອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍທີ່ສູງຂຶ້ນ, ມາດຕະຖານການກູ້ຢືມທີ່ເຄັ່ງຄັດ, ແລະການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຫຼັກຊັບຕ່ໍາ). ທັງຫມົດນີ້ຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າ ການຕີຕະຫຼາດຈະສືບຕໍ່ ແລະຄວາມສ່ຽງ ເສດຖະກິດຈົມລົງ ເຂົ້າສູ່ພາວະຖົດຖອຍຈະຮຸນແຮງຂຶ້ນ.

But it’s important to remember that while recession risks are elevated, ຜູ້ບໍລິໂພກແມ່ນມາຈາກຕໍາແຫນ່ງທາງດ້ານການເງິນທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງຫຼາຍ. ຄົນຫວ່າງງານແມ່ນ ຮັບວຽກ. ຜູ້ທີ່ມີວຽກເຮັດແມ່ນໄດ້ຮັບການເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ. ແລະຈໍານວນຫຼາຍຍັງມີ ເງິນຝາກປະຢັດເກີນ ແຕະໃສ່. ແທ້ຈິງແລ້ວ, ຂໍ້ມູນການໃຊ້ຈ່າຍທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງຢືນຢັນຄວາມຢືດຢຸ່ນທາງດ້ານການເງິນນີ້. ສະນັ້ນມັນ ໄວເກີນໄປທີ່ຈະສົ່ງສຽງປຸກຈາກທັດສະນະການບໍລິໂພກ.

ໃນຈຸດນີ້, ໃດ ການ​ຫຼຸດ​ລົງ​ບໍ່​ມີ​ທ່າ​ວ່າ​ຈະ​ກາຍ​ເປັນ​ໄພ​ພິ​ບັດ​ທາງ​ເສດ​ຖະ​ກິດ ໃຫ້ວ່າ ສຸຂະພາບທາງດ້ານການເງິນຂອງຜູ້ບໍລິໂພກແລະທຸລະກິດຍັງຄົງແຂງແຮງຫຼາຍ.

ໃນຖານະເປັນສະເຫມີ, ນັກລົງທຶນໄລຍະຍາວຄວນຈື່ໄວ້ວ່າ ພາວະຖົດຖອຍ ແລະ ຕະຫຼາດຫມີ ແມ່ນພຽງແຕ່ ສ່ວນຫນຶ່ງຂອງຂໍ້ຕົກລົງ ໃນເວລາທີ່ທ່ານເຂົ້າໄປໃນຕະຫຼາດຫຼັກຊັບໂດຍມີຈຸດປະສົງຂອງການສ້າງຜົນຕອບແທນໃນໄລຍະຍາວ. ໃນຂະນະທີ່ ຕະຫຼາດມີປີທີ່ຮ້າຍແຮງ, ການຄາດຄະເນໄລຍະຍາວຂອງຮຸ້ນ ຍັງຄົງເປັນບວກ.

ສໍາລັບຂໍ້ມູນເພີ່ມເຕີມກ່ຽວກັບວິທີການພັດທະນາຂອງມະຫາພາກ, ກວດເບິ່ງ TKer macro crosscurrents ທີ່ຜ່ານມາ »

ສໍາລັບຂໍ້ມູນເພີ່ມເຕີມກ່ຽວກັບວ່າເປັນຫຍັງນີ້ແມ່ນສະພາບແວດລ້ອມທີ່ບໍ່ເອື້ອອໍານວຍທີ່ຜິດປົກກະຕິສໍາລັບຕະຫຼາດຫຼັກຊັບ, ອ່ານ "ການຕີຕະຫຼາດຈະສືບຕໍ່ຈົນກ່ວາອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ປັບປຸງ 🥊“»

ສໍາ​ລັບ​ການ​ເບິ່ງ​ໃກ້​ຊິດ​ຢູ່​ໃນ​ບ່ອນ​ທີ່​ພວກ​ເຮົາ​ຢູ່​ແລະ​ວິ​ທີ​ທີ່​ພວກ​ເຮົາ​ມາ​ທີ່​ນີ້​, ອ່ານ “ຄວາມສັບສົນຂອງຕະຫຼາດແລະເສດຖະກິດ, ອະທິບາຍ 🧩"

ເລື່ອງນີ້ແມ່ນ ເດີມ published on TKer.co

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