ການຕໍ່ສູ້ຂອງ Zandon ເພື່ອເອົາຊະນະ Epicenter, ແລະການເດີມພັນທີ່ທ່ານຄວນເຮັດ

As the 2022 Kentucky Derby’s post time draws toward us, it brings an inexorable focus to the bigger questions of the dozens that swirl around the athletes of this rich $3- million 148th running of the race on May 7. That’s not to say that our oft-overheated touts will bring us any closer to the answers to those questions, but we’ll definitely be treated to reams of analysis down on the nano-particle level. By far this Derby’s biggest and certainly most rare question is whether the extremely lightly-raced Zandon can stay the course, deal with the immense pressures of the race and live up to his (morning line) favorite status to land in the winner’s circle.

On the books, that’s a tall order. Epicenter, beloved by pundits far and wide before Mr. Mike Battaglia, Churchill’s esteemed oddsmaker, flipped Epicenter down to 7-2, crowning Zandon (3-1) with the top spot in the morning line on May 2, just hasn’t seemed as impressive on the maintenance rounds at Churchill. To boot, he’s drawn a terrible inside post position, three from Churchill’s race-killing rail. Zandon’s elevation early this week to ໄດ້ favored low man in the odds is an admirably more subjective sort of gamble by Mr. Battaglia. The garland is based on training, and one admittedly big race, the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 9, when Zandon bested fellow Derby contender Smile Happy, whom Mr. Battaglia ratcheted down quite far at 20-1 in the morning line.

Put another way, Mr. Battaglia’s estimate of the Zandon is a dispatch on how he looks ໃນປັດຈຸບັນ, at Churchill, and it more than slightly discounts Zandon’s — at best, uneven — three career starts. In fact, as the world knows and Epicenter’s connections will not let us forget, Epicenter ແລະ Smile Happy raked Zandon over the coals in the Risen Star down in Louisiana in mid-February, in which Zandon ran third.

To help us unlock these and other mysteries of Kentucky Derby 148, we’ll call upon our trusted advisor and Kentucky-bred horseman, the Bluegrass Wise Man, who has been so generous with his analysis in many Triple Crown seasons past. Full disclaimer: The Wise Man, an owner, has no horses running in this year’s Derby, but he will be energetically betting the race.

First, an odds refresher:

(ຕໍາແໜ່ງ, ມ້າ, ຄູຝຶກ, ໂຈກກີ້, ສາຍເຊົ້າ)

1. ໂມ ໂດເນກາ, ທັອດ ເພັຊເຊີ, ໄອຣາດ ອອດຕິສ ຈູເນຍ, 10-1.

2. ສຸກສັນ ແຈ໊ກ, ດັ໊ກ ໂອນິລ, ຣາຟາເອລ ເບຈາຣາໂນ, 30-1

3. ເອພີເຊັນເຕີ້, ສະຕີຟ ອາມັສເຊັນ, ໂຈເອລ ໂຣຊາຣິໂອ, 7-2

4. Summer Is Tomorrow, ບູພັດ ເຊມາ, ມິກຄາເອລ ບາຊາໂລນາ, 30-1.

5. ຍິ້ມມີຄວາມສຸກ, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 20-1

6. ເມສຊີ ເອັຟຊີ, ທິມຢາກເທນ, ຈອນ ເວລາສເກັຊ, 8-1

7. ກຸຫຼາບ ພູນຊັບ, ໂຄອິຊິ ຊິນທານີ, ຄຣິສໂຕເຟ່ ເລເມເຣ, 20-1

8. ໄລ່, ທັອດ ເພັລຊ໌, ລຸຍ ຊາເອສ, 20-1

9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1.

10. ຊານໂດນ, ແຊດ ບຣາວ, ຟຣາວຽນ ປຣາດ, 3-1

11. ພີໂອເນວ ຂອງ ເມດີນາ, ໂຕດ ເພັລຊ໌, ໂຈ ບຣາໂວ, 30-1

12. ໄທບາ, ທິມຢັກເທນ, ໄມສະມິດ 12-1

13. ອັນໂຕນິໂອ ຊາໂນ, ໂຮເຊ ໂອຕິຊ, 20-1

14. Barber Road, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez, 30-1

15. ຂາວ ອາບາຣິໂອ, ເຊຟຟີ ໂຈເຊບ ຈູເນຍ, ໄທເລີ ແກຟາລິໂອເນ, 10-1.

16. Cyberknife, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 20-1.

17. ຄລາສສິກ ຄາສເວວ, ບຣຽນ ລີນຊ໌, ຈູລຽນ ເລປາຣຸກ, 30-1

18. ທົວນີ ພອດ, ແບຣດ ຄອກ, ຣິຄາໂດ ຊານຕານາ ຈູເນຍ, 30-1

19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 20-1

20. Ethereal Road, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

(ທີ່ມາ: Churchill Downs, ວັນທີ 6 ພຶດສະພາ 2022)

Note: These odds will change as the track opens for the Oaks races, and we’ll update them as they do. With no further ado, here’s the Bluegrass Wise Man ™.

So, why Zandon? Is it really the works? Or more of a sum of all things?

ຜູ້ຊາຍທີ່ສະຫລາດ g: Couple of things. Mike Battaglia likes Zandon’s race in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. It was impressive and his workouts at Churchill since the Bluegrass have been impressive. He is a developing colt. Light on his feet, great mover. That said, it is a coin flip really between Zandon and Epicenter, and in that delicate scale, Zandon gets the nod from Battaglia because of his post position. Nobody breaking from the three hole has won the Derby since Real Quiet in 1998. Tall order for Mr. Epicenter.

Enlighten us please on Messier. He’s lurking back there and seems ready to spoil.

ຜູ້ຊາຍທີ່ສະຫລາດ g: Messier looks like a big colt. He has been in the Bob Baffert program. He has tactical speed so he can put himself in the race. He has a good post. He may be near the front. The pedigree says he can get the distance. Big shot. No question. Is he good enough? His 15 length win two starts back came against a colt who has won twice and both on the turf.

Let’s return to Epicenter. Is the three hole really and truly that bad? Give us a picture of what he has to do to get past his post position.

ຜູ້ຊາຍທີ່ສະຫລາດ g: I’m not sure his draw is terrible. The 20 stall gate may actually help in the sense he doesn’t have to make the right-hand turn out of the stall in order not to bounce off the rail. Which the old two-section gate definitely did make you do. In addition, Epicenter’s good from the gate. If he gets out quickly and cleanly — yes, it’s a big if — but if he does, he has a short way around. He’s also got good tactical speed, and I think he can put himself where he wants to be in the race. But there’s a lot out there on Churchill’s track that he has to do in that race besides get comfortable.