Ethereum

Ethereum derivatives ເບິ່ງຄືວ່າຫຼຸດລົງ, ແຕ່ພໍ່ຄ້າເຊື່ອວ່າ ETH ລຸ່ມແມ່ນຢູ່ໃນ

11/29/2022
ຂ່າວ Bitcoin Ethereum

ອີເທີ (ETH) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors’ sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi ຍື່ນສໍາລັບການລົ້ມລະລາຍ ໃນວັນທີ Nov.28.

Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with crypto exchange Kraken for “apparent violations of sanctions against Iran.” In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 to settle its potential civil liability.

Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi’s bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are less than than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.

Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues. One example comes from Crypto Twitter trader Il Capo Of Crypto:

ເຮົາມາເບິ່ງ ນຳ ກັນ ອະນຸພັນອີເທີ ຂໍ້ມູນເພື່ອເຂົ້າໃຈວ່າສະພາບຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຊຸດໂຊມລົງໄດ້ສົ່ງຜົນກະທົບຕໍ່ຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກຂອງນັກລົງທຶນ crypto.

ຮູບພາບ

Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levels

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a ສັນຍາອະນາຄົດຕະຫຼອດໄປ.

The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — a bearish indicator.

Ether ປະກັນໄພ 2 ເດືອນໃນອະນາຄົດປະຈໍາປີ. ທີ່ມາ: Laevitas

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.

Still, traders should also analyze ຕະຫຼາດທາງເລືອກຂອງ Ether ເພື່ອຍົກເວັ້ນພາຍນອກສະເພາະກັບເຄື່ອງມືໃນອະນາຄົດ.

Options traders do not expect a sudden rally

25% delta skew ເປັນສັນຍານບອກໃນເວລາທີ່ຜູ້ຜະລິດຕະຫຼາດແລະ arbitrage desks ແມ່ນ overcharging ສໍາລັບການປົກປ້ອງ upside ຫຼື downside.

ໃນຕະຫຼາດຫມີ, ນັກລົງທຶນທາງເລືອກໃຫ້ໂອກາດທີ່ສູງຂຶ້ນສໍາລັບການ dump ລາຄາ, ເຮັດໃຫ້ຕົວຊີ້ວັດ skew ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຂ້າງເທິງ 10%. ໃນທາງກົງກັນຂ້າມ, ຕະຫຼາດທີ່ມີແນວໂນ້ມທີ່ຈະຂັບລົດຕົວຊີ້ວັດ skew ຂ້າງລຸ່ມນີ້ -10%, ຊຶ່ງຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າທາງເລືອກທີ່ຫຼຸດລົງແມ່ນຫຼຸດລົງ.

ທາງເລືອກ Ether 60 ມື້ 25% delta skew: ແຫຼ່ງຂໍ້ມູນ: Laevitas

The delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.

From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest ສໍາລັບ Bitcoin (BTC). The movement has led to a seven-day realized loss of $10.2 billion.

Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics — will eventually come out ahead.