Dow Posts ມື້ທີ່ດີທີ່ສຸດນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ເດືອນພະຈິກຫຼັງຈາກລາຍງານວຽກເຮັດໃຫ້ຄວາມຫວັງຂອງ Fed Pivot

Topline

Stocks surged Friday on ຂ່າວ of a cooling labor market, a necessary condition for the Federal Reserve to stand down from its most aggressive monetary policy in decades which has sent stocks spiraling, even though a prominent Fed official said the latest jobs report did little to change his mindset.

ຂໍ້ເທັດຈິງສໍາຄັນ

The U.S. added more jobs than expected in December and the unemployment rate surprisingly fell, ຕາມ to data from the Labor Department, while wages were up 4.6% on a 12-month basis, the slowest pace of worker pay gains ນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ August 2021

Considering the Fed ໂທ unsustainable wage growth the top contributor to inflation, markets welcomed signs of slowing wage increases with open arms.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 680 points, or 2.1%, its largest daily gain since November 30, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively.

Bonds similarly recovered, with 10-year Treasury yields dipping 16 basis points to 3.56%, its lowest rate in nearly three weeks.

“Finally, there is good news for investors,” Bolvin Wealth Management Group’s president Gina Bolvin wrote in emailed comments.

Contra

Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, doused cold water on the early declarations of a Fed pivot, ບອກ CNBC the latest jobs data “doesn’t really change my outlook at all,” adding the Fed has “got to stay the course” in its rate hike campaign.

ຄວາມເປັນມາຫຼັກ

The U.S. central bank increased the federal funds rate, which sets the interest costs for lending between banks and guides borrowing costs across industries, seven times in 2022. Major stock indexes subsequently notched their worst annual returns since 2008, as equities typically slip with higher interest rates as higher borrowing costs drag on corporate earnings. Though the federal funds rate ນັ່ງ at its highest level since 2007, no Fed official backed rate cutes at any point in 2023 at its policy-setting committee’s latest meeting in December. Given that, the real question in the eyes of the market is if the Fed considerably slows the pace of its hikes following the committee’s next meeting January 31 and February 1, having increased rates by 0.5% at its last gathering after four consecutive 0.75% hikes. CME Group’s closely tracked FedWatch tool ໂຄງການ a 76% chance of a 25 basis-point increase at the Fed’s next meeting, compared to a 24% chance for another 50 basis-point increase.

ຄຳ ເວົ້າທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນ

“Today’s employment report was a clear indication that labor market dynamics are softening somewhat…[but] we think the Fed is not ready to pause yet, and that we need some further downside momentum in employment for the Fed to feel like it is reaching a balance,” Rick Rieder, head of BlackRock’s global investment allocation unit, wrote in a Friday note.

ອ່ານ​ເພີ່ມ​ເຕີມ

ອັດຕາການຫວ່າງງານຫຼຸດລົງເຖິງ 3.5%—ແຕ່ຄຸນນະພາບວຽກເຮັດງານທຳຫຼຸດລົງ—ຍ້ອນວ່າ Fed ເຮັດວຽກເພື່ອຕໍ່ສູ້ກັບເງິນເຟີ້. (Forbes)

Dow ຫຼຸດລົງ 300 ຈຸດຍ້ອນວ່າການຈ້າງງານທີ່ຮ້າຍແຮງຂຶ້ນຢືນຢັນວ່າການຂາຍເຕັກໂນໂລຢີອາດຈະຢູ່ຕໍ່ໄປອີກແລ້ວ. (Forbes)

Fed ຄາດວ່າຈະບໍ່ມີການຕັດອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍໃນປີ 2023: ເຈົ້າຫນ້າທີ່ຫນຶ່ງເຕືອນວ່າ "ຄວາມຜິດພາດຄ່າໃຊ້ຈ່າຍ" ຖ້າທະນາຄານກາງຖອຍຫລັງໄວເກີນໄປ (Forbes)